- Guru Database: Deep Stats- 5 Years, customizable
- Customized Projections
- Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets, SOS Tool, Points Allowed Tool
- Best Strategy Articles around
- Tons of News & Inside information
- Trade/Roster Analyzers
- Blogs, Message Boards, Expert Chats, Informative Podcasts, Video Reports, more
- Free Baseball Content
2008 Sample article.
Check out our
Subscriber-Online Football Homepage here.
Subscribe for 2008 Here!
Fantasy Impact: 2008’s Coaching
Changes
by Adam Caplan
NFL
Reporter/Insider, FantasyGuru.com
Published, 6/5/08
This year’s not a big year for head coaching changes, with only four new ones in 2008 compared to seven in 2007. However, it’s still an important year to analyze because there were a number of key coordinator changes that will definitely affect fantasy production on the field this year.
Understanding the ramifications of this year’s switches is yet another piece to your potential fantasy championship puzzle, so let’s take a look at this year’s changes.
Atlanta
Falcons
Head
Coach:
Mike Smith
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Mularkey
Defensive Coordinator: Brian VanGorder
Overview: Smith takes over for Bobby Petrino, who quit
before last season was over. Smith comes over from the Jaguars,
where he was their defensive coordinator since 2003. Mularkey was
the Dolphin tight ends coach in 2007, and he ran their offense in
2006. Mularkey was also the Bill head coach for two seasons
(2004-2005), but he’s well-known for his stint as the Steeler
offensive coordinator (2001-2003). VanGorder has mostly been a
defensive coordinator and defensive assistant in college for the
better part of the last 19 years. He did spend one year coaching the
Falcon linebackers (2007) and Jaguar linebackers (2005).
Offensive Analysis: Mularkey is a veteran coach who will use
a power-rushing scheme. This will be a ball-control offense, much
like Mularkey’s units with the Steelers. That’s why the team signed
free agent Michael Turner, a power back, to handle the bulk
of the carries. While his offense will be far from pass happy,
receivers such as Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were
productive under Mularkey in the past. Tight ends haven’t been
really involved, which might explain why the position wasn’t
addressed in the off-season after Alge Crumpler departed,
although Randy McMichael did have 62 receptions in 2006 with
Mularkey calling the plays. The backs haven’t caught the ball much,
either, which may not bode extremely well for Jerious Norwood.
Defensive Analysis: VanGorder will be responsible for running
Smith’s 4-3 defensive scheme. Smith’s scheme with Jacksonville was
much like most 4-3 fronts, but the defense was always known for
being physical. Of course, Atlanta is lacking in talent in several
areas on defense, so don’t expect much from them as far as fantasy
is concerned.
Final Verdict: Turner will get a lot of carries in this
scheme if he can stay healthy. This is a pretty conventional
offense, and if the team is behind, you’ll see more throwing and
better numbers in the passing game than expected. However,
Mularkey’s scheme works best when the run/pass ratio is balanced, so
Turner will be a key cog.
Baltimore
Ravens
Head
Coach:
John Harbaugh
Offensive Coordinator: Cam Cameron
Defensive Coordinator: Rex Ryan (holdover)
Overview: Harbaugh will be a head coach for the first time in
his NFL career, taking over for Brian Billick, who was fired.
Harbaugh was the Eagle secondary coach last season, and before that
he was Philadelphia’s special teams coach for 13 seasons. Cameron
was the Dolphin head coach last season and before that, he was the
offensive coordinator for the Chargers for five seasons.
Offensive Analysis: The main reason Cameron got the OC job
was because the team didn’t want to change their power rushing
philosophy, which Cameron has used for many seasons. So that’s good
news for starting RB Willis McGahee because they will have a
run-first mentality. But the backs will catch the football in his
scheme, too. LaDainian Tomlinson averaged about 68 catches
per season under Cameron and Ronnie Brown was averaging over
five catches per game in Miami last year before suffering a
season-ending knee injury. McGahee caught a career-high 43 passes
last season, but he could be in store for more work in the passing
game. Rookie RB Ray Rice, a good receiver, should also be a
factor in the passing game. Cameron is also a very good teacher of
quarterbacks and has been credited with the development of Drew
Brees and Philip Rivers. So Cameron will be responsible
for the grooming of first-round pick Joe Flacco, who is seen
as the future at the quarterback position for Baltimore. Antonio
Gates also developed into arguably the best NFL tight end with
Cameron calling the plays for the Chargers, so that bodes well for
veteran Todd Heap.
Final Verdict: McGahee could post career highs in yards,
catches, and TDs this season if he stays healthy based on how well
backs have done in Cameron’s system over the years. Heap should also
have a productive year if he can manage to avoid injury. But don’t
expect big numbers from the wide receivers based on the history of
that position under Cameron.
Buffalo Bills
Head
Coach:
Dick Jauron (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Turk Schonert
Defensive Coordinator: Perry Fewell (holdover)
Overview: Schonert takes over for Steve Fairchild, who
left to become the head coach at Colorado State. Schonert was
Buffalo’s quarterbacks coach for the previous two seasons and has
been coaching the position with five different teams for over 11
seasons. This is his second stint with Buffalo (coached quarterbacks
1998-2000).
Offensive Analysis: Buffalo ran a very conservative offense
last season (ran nearly 58% on first down) and Schonert is on record
saying there will be changes. "The offense will be different," he
said earlier this year in interview with the team’s official
website. "I'm going to put my stamp on it. It's going to be our
offense, not my offense. I want to get the coaches involved. I like
having the players involved and their input. We're going to be more
diversified than the past two years. I'm probably going to be a more
aggressive play caller than what we saw last year. I can't say what
we're going to be to this point, but I know where I want us to be."
Because of the QB inconsistency last season, Buffalo became very
conservative and more of a run-based offense. If Schonert is more
aggressive like he says he plans to be, that will mean more passes
to the receivers, especially to Lee Evans. Play-action passes
will become more of a factor in the new system, so that means for
them to work, they have to run the ball well. Marshawn Lynch
should get plenty of touches in this system, and as Lynch himself
told us in May, backup Fred Jackson will see possibly as much
action in the passing game as Lynch. Marshawn also told us that he
and Jackson could be on the field at the same time, with one of them
split out wide. Lynch added that the offense will be much more
fast-paced, with the hopes of creating some big plays.
Final Verdict: It was tough to watch Buffalo’s offense last
season, but if Schonert is as aggressive as he says he’s going to
be, that should mean better things for Evans and the rest of the
receivers, even the tight ends, who rarely were used previously. And
we should see Lynch catch a lot more passes this season.
Cincinnati
Bengals
Head
Coach:
Marvin Lewis (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Bob Bratkowski (holdover)
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Zimmer
Overview: Zimmer takes over for Chuck Bresnahan, who
wasn’t retained. Zimmer was the defensive coordinator for the
Falcons last season, and before that he held the same position with
the Cowboys for several years.
Defensive Analysis: While Zimmer will run a base 4-3 scheme,
he’s expected to use some elements of the 3-4 since Cincinnati will
have better depth at linebacker this season. Zimmer seemed out of
place using the 3-4 at the end of his tenure with Dallas, but when
he was using the 4-3, his defenses were generally pretty solid and
very physical.
Final Verdict: If all their injured players are back healthy
this season, Cincinnati’s fantasy defense could be much better, but
they’re still best drafted as a backup. After all, there are still a
lot of talent issues at various positions.
Cleveland
Browns
Head
Coach:
Romeo Crennel (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Rob Chudzinski (holdover)
Defensive Coordinator: Mel Tucker
Overview: Tucker takes over for Todd Grantham, who
wasn’t retained. Tucker was Cleveland’s secondary coach the past few
seasons.
Defensive Analysis: Tucker may make some small adjustments in
their 3-4 scheme, but he’s expected to keep the same principles.
However, he should be a bit more aggressive. The team added a lot of
talent to their front three, so that could help boost their sack
numbers.
Final Verdict: Cleveland’s secondary was a disappointment
last season under Tucker, so unless the pass rush is significantly
better as well as the tackling (the defense was poor against the run
in 2007), this fantasy defense isn’t going to be anything more than
an average backup.
Denver
Broncos
Head
Coach:
Mike Shanahan (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Rick Dennison (holdover)
Defensive Coordinator: Bob Slowik
Overview: Slowik takes over for Jim Bates, who
resigned. Slowik becomes Denver’s third defensive coordinator in the
last three seasons. He was previously Denver’s secondary coach and
before that, he was the Packer defensive coordinator for one season.
Defensive Analysis: Slowik is known as a solid secondary
coach and Denver already has one of the league’s best secondaries.
What Denver hasn’t had in recent seasons is a good front four and
that could remain a problem, since they didn’t address it in the
off-season other than acquiring underachieving DT Dewayne
Robertson from the Jets. Denver’s linebackers aren’t anything
special either.
Final Verdict: We don’t see much changing here until the
front office starts to add some top talent to the front four, so
this fantasy defense isn’t really worth drafting. Bates was
considered a big failure last year, so this group probably can’t get
any worse in 2008, at least.
Detroit
Lions
Head
Coach:
Rod Marinelli (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Jim Colletto
Defensive Coordinator: Joe Barry (holdover)
Overview: Colletto, the team’s offensive line coach last
year, takes over for Mike Martz, who wasn’t retained. He
spent one season in college as an offensive line coach and before
that, he was Baltimore’s offensive line coach from 1999 through
2005.
Offensive Analysis: Martz wasn’t brought back because the
team thought he was too pass happy, which is obviously his
bread-and-butter. Colletto will use a power-based rushing game that
will be the focus of the offense. That explains why the team
selected RB Kevin Smith in this year’s draft. The coaches
believe the rookie is a good power runner who can handle a lot of
carries, so he’s the guy who will clearly benefit from the change in
offensive philosophy.
Final Verdict: Colletto’s power rushing philosophy isn’t good
news for Roy Williams owners, since he may not be as involved
as in years past. However, since they won’t use a lot of three- and
four-receiver sets, meaning Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey
likely won’t catch a lot of passes, Williams and Calvin Johnson
could still be fine.
Houston Texans
Head
Coach:
Gary Kubiak (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Shanahan
Defensive Coordinator: Richard Smith (holdover)
Overview: Shanahan takes over for Mike Sherman, who
became the head coach at Texas A&M. Shanahan was Houston’s
quarterbacks coach last season and their wide receivers coach the
previous season.
Offensive Analysis: Don’t expect anything to change here
since Shanahan will be running the West Coast scheme that Kubiak
brought with him from Denver. And Kubiak got that from Shanahan’s
dad, Mike. The younger Shanahan is only 28 years old and hasn’t ever
called the plays before, so it will be interesting to see if Kubiak
still calls the plays on game days. We should also point out that
offensive line guru Alex Gibbs is with the team as assistant
head coach/offense. Gibbs is one of the best line coaches in the
history of the league, and he’ll bring with him the true Bronco zone
scheme, which can greatly improve their running game.
Final Verdict: In terms of the passing game, we don’t see
anything changing here and it’s a good thing that Shanahan worked
with starting QB Matt Schaub last season. The only potential
negative here is if Shanahan gets to call the plays and struggles
with that role. But Kubiak is still there and can help. The running
game should be more effective, and either Ahman Green or
Chris Brown could enjoy success if healthy, as most backs on
teams coached by Gibbs have done.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Head
Coach:
Jack Del Rio (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Dirk Koetter (holdover)
Defensive Coordinator: Gregg Williams
Overview: Williams takes over for Mike Smith, who was
named the Falcon head coach. Williams was previously with the
Redskins as their assistant head coach/defense (2004-2007). He also
had stints as the head coach of the Bills (2001-2003) and as the
Titan defensive coordinator (1999-2000).
Defensive Analysis: Williams is known for usually being very
aggressive with his 4-3 scheme, and that’s a bit of a departure from
the way Smith ran his defensive scheme. You could see more blitzing
from the linebackers, for example. Williams wasn’t able to be as
aggressive as he wanted to be in recent seasons with Washington
because of injuries in the secondary, but Jacksonville has a deep
secondary. They also took two defensive ends high in this year’s
draft, so Williams should be able to bring it with the pass rush
much more in Jacksonville.
Final
Verdict: The addition of Williams as the defensive coordinator
could be an improvement for fantasy owners to take note of because
you could see more turnovers forced. Jacksonville usually hovers
around the top-10 fantasy defenses, but with Williams calling the
shots, they could be much better.
Kansas City
Chiefs
Head
Coach:
Herman Edwards (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Chan Gailey
Defensive Coordinator: Gunther Cunningham (holdover)
Overview: Gailey takes over for Mike Solari, who
wasn’t retained. Gailey comes over from the collegiate ranks, where
he was head coach at Georgia Tech. Gailey was last in the NFL with
the Dolphins (2000-2001). Before that, he was the head coach of the
Cowboys (1998-1999) and offensive coordinator of the Steelers
(1996-1997).
Offensive Analysis: Gailey got the job because head coach
Herman Edwards wanted to keep the power rushing approach to
their offense. Gailey ran a similar power rushing attack with Miami,
Dallas, and Pittsburgh, so we’ll see the same philosophy in place
this season. However, Gailey is more imaginative than his
predecessor, so if the offensive line can block better, we could see
better passing numbers.
Final Verdict: You’ll see starting RB Larry Johnson
get the ball plenty in Gailey’s scheme, as other running backs have
in the past (Emmitt Smith, Lamar Smith, and Jerome
Bettis) under Gailey. That’s the good news. But without an
improved offensive line, the numbers may not be as good as fantasy
owners are looking for.
Miami
Dolphins
Head
Coach:
Tony Sparano
Offensive Coordinator: Dan Henning
Defensive Coordinator: Paul Pasqualoni
Overview: Sparano comes over from the Cowboys, where he was
their offensive line coach (2003-2007). He’s also been with the
Jaguars, Redskins, and Browns, coaching the offensive line and tight
ends. Henning was fired as the Panther offensive coordinator after
the 2006 season (was the OC there since 2002), and he was out of the
league last season. He was the Jet OC (1998-2000) prior to that.
Pasqualoni coached the Cowboy linebackers the past two seasons and
their tight ends prior to that (2005). He was also the head coach at
Syracuse University (1991-2004).
Offensive Analysis: Henning, a Bill Parcells guy, is
known as an old-school coach who has a power rushing philosophy.
Running backs such as Stephen Davis and Curtis Martin
have flourished in Henning’s system. However, it’s believed he was
fired by Carolina because his system was not imaginative. Still,
Steve Smith saw his career take off under Henning and veteran
Muhsin Muhammad (16 TD catches in 2004) also did well with
Henning. Jake Delhomme (29 TD passes in 2004) and Vinny
Testaverde (29 TD passes in 1998) became better passers in
Henning’s system. So the numbers are there to prove that players
involved in the passing game can do well in his scheme.
Defensive Analysis: The belief is Miami will run a base 3-4
scheme with some elements of the 4-3. After all, the current
personnel grouping in Miami is better suited for the 3-4. But the
bottom line is there’s little talent on the defensive side of the
ball here, so it’s going to take a while before we see anything
significant fantasy-wise.
Final Verdict: Henning will be working with a very young
group of receivers and not much talent at quarterback, so the
passing numbers should be mediocre at best. While some backs have
done well under Henning, Ronnie Brown is coming off ACL
surgery and Miami’s offensive line still needs to be upgraded on the
interior. Down the road, after the team settles on a quarterback and
the talent on the offensive side is improved, Henning’s offense
could be decent.
San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach:
Mike Nolan (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Martz
Defensive Coordinator: Greg Manusky (holdover)
Overview: Martz comes over from the Lions, where he was their
offensive coordinator for the past two seasons. He takes over in San
Francisco for Jim Hostler, who was not retained.
Offensive Analysis: Martz will bring his timing-based offense
with its diversified passing game. The key to this passing game is
that the quarterback must get the ball out of his hands quickly and
on time to his receivers because there are no audibles. The
quarterback and receivers will use sight adjustments and tweak the
play call based on the coverage from the defense. So struggling QB
Alex Smith will have to shorten his release in order for the
passing game to work. That’s why QB Shaun Hill will have a
decent chance to win the job: He gets the ball out of his hands
quicker. While Martz won’t ever be considered a play-caller who
likes to run the ball, his backs will catch it. Former Lion RB
Kevin Jones caught 61 passes in 2006. Former Ram RB Marshall
Faulk had five straight years of catching at least 80 passes in
Martz’s system. Martz not only will get the ball to his starting
receivers, but the backups will catch the ball, also. Lion WR
Shaun McDonald, who was #4 on their depth chart, caught 79
passes last season. Tight ends haven’t been used much in Martz’s
system, but part of that is because he hasn’t had many good players
at that position to work with over the years.
Final Verdict: Martz’s offense is a proven system, so whoever
starts at quarterback has a chance to be productive. And seeing what
backs have done under Martz, we have to feel good about the
possibilities for Frank Gore in this system. As mentioned
above, even the back-up receivers have a chance to be productive.
This could be a very interesting passing game and offense to watch
this season.
St.
Louis
Rams
Head
Coach:
Scott Linehan (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Al Saunders
Defensive Coordinator: Jim Haslett (holdover)
Overview: Saunders takes over for Greg Olson,
who wasn’t retained. Saunders comes over from the Redskins, where he
was their offensive coordinator (2006-2007). He held the same
position with the Chiefs (2001-2005) prior to that.
Offensive Analysis: Saunders will still use a power rushing
philosophy as he did with Washington and Kansas City, but he’ll use
snippets of Mike Martz’ timing-based passing game. We’ve seen
Trent Green become a Pro-Bowl quarterback under Saunders, so
that bodes well for Marc Bulger. Running backs such as
Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Priest Holmes
have all done well under Saunders, and he’ll ask his backs to catch
the ball, too. Johnson and Holmes, of course, have finished in the
top-five fantasy producers at their position previously, so the
history is there for Steven Jackson to produce big numbers if
he and his offensive line can stay healthy. We’ve also seen Eddie
Kennison (miraculously) revive his career with Saunders, and
Tony Gonzalez flourished in his system, as did Chris Cooley.
So just about every position is capable of producing numbers. On the
downside, the knock on Saunders is that his playbook is too large
and that it takes too much time for the players to learn. That was a
common complaint by the Redskin players in Saunders’ first year with
them. However, Saunders worked for the Rams before he got the job
with the Chiefs and he’ll be installing a similar system this
season, one Bulger and #1 wideout Torry Holt already know.
Final Analysis: Just based on what we’ve seen from running
backs in this system, Jackson could be in store for a big year.
Saunders relies on a lot of shifting and motion with his receivers,
so this is a complex system that is going to put pressure on
opposing defenses. We could also see Bulger, Holt, Randy
McMichael, and Drew Bennett do well if everything comes
together here. In short, this could be a very interesting offense to
watch this season, especially if the healthier and upgraded
offensive line improves.
Tennessee Titans
Head
Coach:
Jeff Fisher (holdover)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Heimerdinger
Defensive Coordinator: Jim Schwartz (holdover)
Overview: Heimerdinger is back in the same position with
Tennessee for the second time in his career (2000-2004). He was also
an assistant coach with Denver the past two seasons. He was the Jet
offensive coordinator for one season (2005). He replaces Norm
Chow, who wasn’t retained.
Offensive Analysis: Heimerdinger likes to throw down the
field after establishing his power rushing attack. While he runs a
ball-control offense (his offenses finished in the top five of time
of possession five times), he helped develop Steve McNair,
Eddie George, Derrick Mason, and Frank Wycheck.
And Justin McCareins, who is also back for a second stint
with the team, did well the first time around under Heimerdinger.
While his scheme is pretty balanced between the pass and the run,
the biggest issue that he’ll face is speeding up the progression of
Vince Young, something Chow couldn’t accomplish.
Final Analysis: Heimerdinger doesn’t have a lot to work with
at the wide receiver position, so expect another ball-control, power
rushing attack, especially since he has an inexperienced signal
caller behind center in Young.
Washington Redskins
Head
Coach:
Jim Zorn
Offensive Coordinator: Sherman Smith
Defensive Coordinator: Greg Blache
Overview: Zorn takes over for Joe Gibbs, who
decided to retire for the second time. Zorn coached the quarterbacks
for Seattle (2001-2007). Smith was the Titan running backs coach for
the past 13 seasons, going back to the franchise’s time in Houston.
Blache replaces Gregg Williams, who left for the same
post with Jacksonville. Blache was a defensive assistant with
Washington the past four seasons and was defensive coordinator for
the Bears (1999-2003) prior to that.
Offensive Analysis: Zorn will bring the West Coast offensive
scheme with him, and he’ll call the plays. While the backs didn’t
catch a lot of passes in Seattle, that doesn’t necessarily mean
Clinton Portis won’t. After all, it’s not a secret that former
Seahawk Shaun Alexander didn’t have good hands and
wasn’t asked to catch the ball much. It will take some time for
Jason Campbell to adjust to another offensive system (third in
his career) and some insiders question whether he can be accurate
enough to handle such a precise passing game. The tight ends didn’t
catch a lot of passes in Seattle, but again, there weren’t really
any good ones there. Tight ends in this system are usually asked to
stretch the field, so Chris Cooley should be involved quite a
bit. That’s also probably why they drafted speedy TE Fred Davis.
The receivers will be asked to learn new route combinations in this
system, so there will be an adjustment period for them as well as
the quarterback.
Defensive Analysis: When Blache was Chicago’s defensive
coordinator, his defenses were known for being solid and physical.
The problem with Washington’s defense is their lack of pass-rushing
talent. And their secondary has depth problems as well as injury
concerns. Williams couldn’t seem to solve the pass rush problems and
he’s one of the best defensive minds in the game, so it’s hard to
see Blache doing any better.
Final Verdict: This is a new system Zorn’s bringing in, so
don’t expect big passing numbers right away. But if the players can
speed up their learning process, you could see an improvement in the
second half of the season. This is an offense that usually is much
better in the second and third seasons of the installation.
In addition to his work with FantasyGuru.com, Adam Caplan is a regular host on Sirius NFL Radio and co-hosts “Sirius Fantasy Football” with FantasyGuru.com Magazine Publisher John Hansen Friday nights from 8-11 on Sirius NFL Channel 124.