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2008 Sample article.
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2008 Draft
Observations
by Adam Caplan
NFL Insider/Fantasy Analyst, FantasyGuru.com
Published, 6/20/08
In this
report, I take a closer look at the more interesting draft selection
trends in drafts and why they're happening. Part of being a good
fantasy owner is getting a feel for drafts and where players will
go, and that's the purpose of doing this analysis.
As a supplement to our ADP reports, we’ll be taking a periodic look
at these trends, along with analysis, through the end of August.
I’ll cover each offensive position (QB, RB, WR, and TE) and the
values (overvalued and undervalued) of certain players. In my next
update in early July, I’ll include the fantasy defenses.
Quarterback
1. Tom Brady (NE) – He had been one of the best fantasy values for years, but Brady‘s not getting out of the first round in early drafts. However, based on the way he performed last season, he's probably worth it. The team will probably have better balance on offense, but it's always going to be a passing offense. So while Brady's numbers could fall a bit, he should still finish as the top fantasy QB again—provided Randy Moss is in uniform and there to catch the ball.
2. Tony Romo (Dal) - It's amazing how his ascent to popularity and success with women has helped raise his fantasy value (Okay, I'm kidding – but just a bit). But the fact remains; Romo is going off the board as early as Round Two. Thanks to the talent around him, he certainly proved worth such a lofty draft status last year. One key injury to Terrell Owens and Romo may not be as valuable; just look at how he closed last season (last three games: 1 TD, 5 INTs). It’s wise to be aware that you're going to have to overpay to get Romo in 2008.
3. Donovan McNabb (Phi) - He's been a good bargain for fantasy owners in recent years, and that's still the case this year. Fantasy owners are clearly wary of his injury history, which explains why he's going off the board in rounds 6-7. Here's the thing: Why not select him in that area and then get yourself a good backup in rounds 8-10 (Schaub, Garrard, Cutler)? That's a good plan to follow.
4. Marc Bulger (Stl) - If his OL can hold up, Bulger could be one of the better bargains this year, since he's going off the board in rounds 7-8, or even later. In past years, some fantasy owners kind of reached for him. Clearly, there’s no reason to reach for him in 2008 based on early drafts. Let him fall to you.
5. David Garrard (Jac) - Say what you want about him, but Garrard was really solid in his 12 starts last season. Almost every week, we would under-project his numbers a bit, and he kept rising above expectations. Garrard's WR group is much deeper this season, so he could put together an even better second year as a starter – and you can get him in rounds 8-9. If you're willing to take a small risk, he should be a decent starter for fantasy owners this season.
6. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) - Each year there are players who are drafted in a certain range/area that defy login. Hasselbeck and his draft position is one of them. As much as we like him, he lost his #2 WR D.J. Hackett, and #1 WR Deion Branch is coming off of ACL surgery and may not be ready for the start of the regular season. Hasselbeck already has a weak running game behind him, and his OL isn't what it once was. So why is he going off the board in rounds 5-7? We would take him as our backup in rounds 8-9.
7. Aaron Rodgers (GB) - If you're willing to wait a while for your backup QB, Rodgers could be a nice steal late, since he's going off the board in rounds 11-12. While Rodgers has a lot to prove, he has a ton of talent around him, so the pieces are there for him to do well. Now it's just up to him to take the next step in his career.
Running Back
1. Brian Westbrook (Phi) - He has been a bargain in one-point-per-catch leagues in recent years, since he was going off the board in the late first/early second round area. That's now a pipe dream, since Westbrook is going off the board mostly from picks 3-6 in the first round. He's certainly worth it in that scoring system, but it’s worth pointing out that he's not going to be the bargain he had been in recent years.
2. Marion Barber (Dal) - It's almost a lock that Barber won't make it out of round one. Barber’s money around the goal line, and the team rewarded him with a new contract, but it's not a guarantee that he'll get 20 touches/game because the team has good young depth at the position. So Barber's upside may not compare favorably to his fellow first-round backs.
3. Ryan Grant (GB) - Don't be shocked, but more often than not, Grant is being selected as early as late in the first round of recent drafts. Grant is a player who has a small margin of error because the team has plenty of depth at the position. While he was great last season, Grant may not be the best #1 fantasy back, yet that’s the role you’ll likely have to get him if you want him for sure.
4. Earnest Graham (TB) - Because the running back position as a whole isn't strong this year in terms of sure starters, Graham is going off the board higher than expected (mostly in Round Four) in early drafts. But keep in mind he's may be holding out for a new contract, and he'll have competition this season. Graham certainly isn't going to be a bargain this year based on early drafts.
5. Willie Parker (Pit) - We knew he'd drop because of the presence of rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall, but Parker’s going off the board in rounds 4-5. So if you're lucky as I was in a recent draft, you can get him possibly as your #3 RB. So be aware that you don't have to reach for him this season.
6. Matt Forte (Chi) - He's almost a lock to start opening day, and his draft position is kind of reflecting that so far. Forte is going off the board in rounds 5-6 in recent drafts since Cedric Benson was released. You can still probably get Forte as your #3 RB now. But in August, he could move up a few rounds based on hype (you know how that is).
7. Selvin Young (Den) - As of now, you can probably get him in rounds 6-7. But as many of you know, once the hype builds on a player – and it usually does with Denver backs – don't be surprised if Young moves up to rounds 4-5 during drafts in August. The bottom line is that you're actually going to get a possible bargain if you're drafting early this year instead of late July-early August.
Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss (NE) - What a difference a year or even two years make. Last year, Moss was going off the board mostly in rounds 4-6. Now? How about the first round in one-point-per-catch leagues. And based on what we saw last year, he's probably worth taking there and is about as safe as it gets. He was healthy and played in quite possibly the best passing game in NFL history. While Moss might not score 23 TDs again, he's going to score a lot and should finish as the top fantasy WR for the second straight season. He’ll also out-produce a good number of high-end backs.
2. Steve Smith (Car) - If you're willing to take a small gamble that he'll fall to you, Smith might wind up being a great #2 WR because he's dropping mostly to the early part of Round Three. If you don't like the RBs who area there late in the second round or early in the third, Smith is probably going to be a better value, now that Jake Delhomme is back throwing to him.
3. Torry Holt (Stl) - We knew it had to happen some time, but Holt is finally falling down a bit on draft boards. He's going off the board mainly in Round Four, which is well past his past draft position in recent seasons of Round Two. Fantasy owners seem skeptical because of his knee problems, along with an inconsistent passing game. So you can get him as your #2 WR this season.
4. Greg Jennings (GB) - We're big fans of his, but Jennings is overvalued a bit (going off the board as early as Round Four). If Brett Favre were still throwing to him, we could see Jennings easily going that high, maybe higher. But he has an inexperienced QB throwing to him in Aaron Rodgers, so be careful. Jennings could have an up-and-down year.
5. Kevin Curtis (Phi) - For some reason, fantasy owners apparently weren't impressed with his numbers last season. Sure, Curtis did score in bunches, but he's a flat-out steal in rounds 7-8, which is the area where he's falling to in most drafts. Keep him in mind if you're looking for your #2 or #3 WR in that area. He also could be undervalued in auction drafts.
6. Marvin Harrison (Ind) - In one of the more stunning drops this season, Harrison is going off the board in rounds 5-6. That's based mostly on his injury status rather than his legal issues. Keep in mind Harrison had been a perennial pick in rounds 2-3 (early in that round). In some cases, if you can get lucky, you might be able to get him as your #3 WR.
7. Brandon Marshall (Den) – He's going off the board really high based on his breakout season in 2007, more often than not in Round Three. We thought he'd drop to us in Round Five – guess not. But then again, he's probably worth it based on his upside.
8. Calvin Johnson (Det) - For some reason, and we still can't figure this out, Johnson at times is going off the board in rounds 4-5, despite coming up well short of expectations last season (mostly due to injury). And now the Lions will have a conservative passing game, so is he really a good value in those rounds? He’s not, and I'd rather draft him later as my #3 WR, which is a much better role for him with less risk.
9. Santonio Holmes (Pit) - He has a chance to be a really solid fantasy WR, but Holmes won't be a bargain. He's going off the board in rounds 4-5, so don't be surprised if you haven't drafted yet. He's probably worth selecting in that area based on his upside.
10. Hines Ward (Pit) - He's been a good value for many years, but Ward is dropping this year probably because he's been dealing with injury problems for the past few seasons. The good thing is he's going off the board in rounds 5-7, which is a great area for him as your #2 or even your #3 WR, depending how far he falls. The bottom line is that you don't have to reach for Ward this year based on the way fantasy owners are ignoring him early.
11. Roddy White (Atl) - While we like White, he's way overvalued so far (going off the board in rounds 5-6). Keep in mind he's in a completely different scheme than last season, and he might be hard-pressed to eclipse those totals. The bottom line is that if you want to select White, you're going to have to overpay for him – and we’re thinking that’s not a wise move.
12. Joey Galloway (TB) - We know he turns 37 in November and has an inconsistent QB throwing to him, but Galloway’s fall down draft boards is a bit of a head-scratcher. He's going off the board in rounds 8-10, believe it or not, in most early drafts. The bottom line here is let him fall to you in that area as your #3 WR and you'll get a steal.
13. Reggie Brown (Phi) - It was just two years ago when Brown was one of top fantasy sleepers at his position. But as the story usually seems to go when a player comes up well short of expectations, his draft position is adjusted the following season. So after a somewhat brutal 2007 for Brown, he's really falling off the cliff (off the board in rounds 9-10). Keep in mind that he's in a really good passing offense, and he did end last season decently. He still could revive his career, so he's worth a shot that late as your #3 WR.
14. Vincent Jackson (SD) - We know that he's been a mild disappointment for fantasy in his first three seasons of play. However, Jackson had a great run during the 2007 NFL playoffs (18-300-2TD-16.7 in 3 games). If his fine play to close last season carries over, Jackson could be a steal for fantasy owners, since he's going off the board in rounds 9-10.
Tight End
1. Jason Witten (Dal) - For years, Witten had been mostly an afterthought for fantasy owners. But after a breakout season in 2007, forget about getting him as a discount. Witten was usually around in rounds 8-9 last year. This year, he's no bargain; he's going off the board in rounds 4-5. So expect to select him much earlier than expected if you haven't been in a draft yet this season.
2. Dallas Clark (Ind) - It took him five seasons, but Clark finally had a solid season for fantasy owners in 2007. But with his success come high expectations. Apparently, fantasy owners believe last year wasn't be a fluke, since he's going off the board now as early as Round Six. That's a change from previous years when he would mainly go off the board in rounds 9-10. So you're going to have to overpay to get him this year.
3. Jeremy Shockey (NYG) - For the first time that I can recall, Shockey isn't overvalued – and he's actually undervalued. Fantasy owners have clearly tired of his underachieving and are finally letting him slide some down draft boards. If you're patient, you might be able to get him as late as Round Eight, which is a far cry from previous seasons, when he'd go off the board in rounds 5-7.
4. Owen Daniels (Hou) - We know that Daniels came up well short in the TD category (only 3) last season, but he still caught 63 passes. Daniels is highly thought of by his coaches, and he should be more involved in the red zone area this season. That seems to be lost on fantasy owners, since he's not going off the board largely until rounds 10-11.
5. Heath Miller (Pit) - If you're looking for a player who is totally under the radar but is coming off a solid season, don't look past this guy. Miller put up decent numbers (47-566-7TD) in 2007, and he could be an even bigger part of their passing game this season – especially in the red zone area. But despite an emerging career, Miller is largely being ignored by fantasy owners until rounds 9-10. If you're one who tends to wait until the second half of your draft for your TE, Miller should be available for you as your starter.
In addition to his work with FantasyGuru.com, Adam Caplan is a regular host on Sirius NFL Radio and co-hosts “Sirius Fantasy Football” with FantasyGuru.com Magazine Publisher John Hansen Friday nights from 8-11 on Sirius NFL Channel 124.