There are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, so how exactly will this 27-year old fit in alongside, Reed, Doctson and Crowder?As far as historical standards go, Terrelle Pryor is a complete outlier. At 27-years-old, Pryor played his first full pro season as a wide receiver after playing quarterback for his entire career. It’s safe to say it worked out. Pryor posted a 77/1007/4 season essentially as a 27-year-old rookie wideout in Cleveland and has now been rewarded with another shot to continue to do the unpredictable in Washington.

After the Redskins lost DeSean Jackson to the Buccaneers and Pierre Garçon to the 49ers in free agency, they decided to bring in Pryor on a one-year, incentive-laden “prove-it” deal. Washington is about as dysfunctional as a front office can possibly get in the NFL, but signing Pryor gives the Redskins a ton of upside to fill the massive void in their offense.

With the loss of both Jackson and Garçon, the Skins’ voided 35% of their team share of targets and 32% of their red-zone targets from the 2016 season. Jackson and Garçon combined for 214 targets last season and accounted for 46% of Kirk Cousins’ passing yards. While Pryor does have massive open opportunity, there are a few minor hurdles to jump.

First and foremost, we have to account for Josh Doctson’s potential emergence in his second-pro season. He saw just six targets in 2016 and wasn’t ever healthy, but Doctson will undoubtedly be a trendy pick in fantasy football if he continues to progress from his Achilles’ injury. Jamison Crowder also projects to see a nice little bump with Garçon and Jackson out of the picture, too. In 2015 and 2016, Crowder averaged 5.1 targets/game (24 contests) when DeSean Jackson played and 6.8 targets/game (8 contests) when Jackson missed.

However, Washington’s ball distribution is most important. Similarly to New Orleans and Drew Brees, Redskins’ quarterback Kirk Cousins spreads the ball around unequivocally. Over the past two seasons, only Jordan Reed and Pierre Garçon have seen at least 20% of team targets from Kirk Cousins:

Name

Year

Tgts

Tgt Share

RZ Tgt Share

Share of ReYds

Pierre Garçon

2016

114

19%

17%

24%

DeSean Jackson

2016

100

17%

14%

23%

Jamison Crowder

2016

99

17%

21%

19%

Jordan Reed

2016

89

15%

17%

16%

Jordan Reed

2015

114

21%

26%

27%

Pierre Garçon

2015

111

20%

20%

22%

Jamison Crowder

2015

78

14%

16%

17%

DeSean Jackson

2015

49

9%

5%

15%

For reference, Terrelle Pryor owned a 25% target share in Cleveland in 2016 – which was tied with Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson for fifth-most among all players. Based on Washington’s offensive makeup, there is a relatively low chance Pryor dominates targets in Washington. Note, too, that Washington’s pass catchers share red-zone targets and team share of receiving yards (ReYds) fairly equally as well.

Washington’s all-involving ball distribution has not led to many stellar wide receiver finishes (in terms of PPR points per game) over the last two years:

Name

Year

Finish (PPR PPG)

Pierre Garcon

2015

41

Jamison Crowder

2015

62

Pierre Garcon

2016

28

Jamison Crowder

2016

40

DeSean Jackson

2016

39

To be clear, if Kirk Cousins stays in Washington and isn’t traded, Pryor likely has a low-end WR2 floor on the sheer open opportunity in Washington’s offense. However, with Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Vernon Davis in rotation, its unlikely Pryor has the requisite target share to really crash a top-5 ceiling among receivers.

While there are many mouths to feed, Pryor’s addition does make Washington’s offense a whole lot more intriguing after they lost their two top receivers in free agency. With Jamison Crowder primarily playing in the slot, Jordan Reed at tight end, Josh Doctson split out wide, and now Pryor in tow, Washington owns one of the league’s highest-upside receiving corps.