It’s still too early for these numbers to be completely reliable, but by now every team has played at least one home game, and those who have played two are building their case for whether they can help or hurt our IDPs.

Home Crew Tackle Chart

Here’s a breakdown of how each team’s stat crew compares in tackles recorded, solos vs. assists, and Total Tackle Value (weighting a solo tackle as 1 and an assist as 0.5). It will be updated each week to reflect the season totals. For the first four weeks, I’m going to use an average of the tackles and TTV, so that the teams who have played more home games don’t dominate the leaderboard.

Team

Solos

Assists

Total

TTV*

NYG

102

36

138

120

Oak

103

25

128

115.5

TB

96

20

116

106

Buf

89

33

122

105.5

Mia

96

18

114

105

Pit

86

36

122

104

Was

77

54

131

104

Hou

79

45

124

101.5

SD

89

25

114

101.5

SF

93

16

109

101

Hou

75

50

125

100

Dal

77

46

123

100

NE

68

62

130

99

KC

91

15

106

98.5

Car

70

56

126

98

Det

88

19

107

97.5

NO

81

33

114

97.5

Cin

78

38

116

97

Atl

84

24

108

96

Jac

88

13

101

95.5

Sea

56

78

134

95

Ari

88

15

103

95

Min

81

28

109

95

Ind

75

38

113

94

LA

79

25

104

91.5

Den

86

11

97

91.5

Cle

73

36

109

91

Ten

76

29

105

90.5

Chi

87

6

93

90

GB

77

26

103

90

NYJ

67

45

112

89.5

Bal

71

26

97

84

Phi

77.5

11

88.5

83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Total Tackle Value

 

Observations

Tampa Bay gets on the board this week, and picks up where they left off last season – as a top-10 option. Tampa is a good case for TTV: they record a fairly pedestrian amount of tackles, but because they’re such a solo-heavy crew, they are deceptively advantageous for our IDPs. This is partly why Kwon Alexander and Chris Conte are such good plays (Lavonte David is of course a great play as always).

Between the data from last season and the data so far this season, we can highlight some great home crews and some disastrous home crews with reliability:

  • Some of the best crews from last season are off to great starts: NYG, TB, Buf, and Pit.
  • Some of the worst crews from last season are off to bad starts: NYJ, Chi, and Ten.

After two home games and three weeks, Philadelphia continues to earn its dramatic drop from top-3 in 2015 to bottom-of-the-barrel in 2016. It’s safe to assume going forward that they’re an “avoid” when possible.  

Some outliers:

  • Miami ranked dead last in TTV last season, but after one game they’re in the top-5. They have a new head coach, and a more aggressive offense, but they also played an overtime game this week. Their opponent likely didn’t help, as the Browns aren’t a particularly fast team. It will be worth watching to see which of those factors caused Miami’s leap to a “green” team, and if it’s sustainable. Players like Reshad Jones, Kiko Alonso, and Koa Misi might have a little more value than we thought.
  • Green Bay is normally a better-than-average crew for tackles, but their first home game was bottom-5. The solo-to-assist ratio looks similar to last season, and the defense saw a solid number of plays (68), so this is likely just a fluke (small sample size), but one we’ll pay close attention to going forward.
  • San Francisco should be higher on this list in theory. They own the league’s fastest pace of play. They’ve only played one home game, so hopefully they’ll move up soon (they now play a few games in a row at home). Their one home game featured only 61 defensive snaps, while their two road games featured 70 and 83. 
  • Kansas City was 2nd to last in TTV in 2015, but after one home game in 2016, they were in the top-5. Predictably, they fell back down to Earth after another game at home, so they’re trending back toward an average (or below average) home crew.

 

Now let’s highlight a few matchups this week that may either give some IDPs an extra boost, or lower their tackle ceiling.

 

Favorable Matchups  

Den @ TB – With so many talented IDPs in Denver, it’s a shame their home crew isn’t more tackle-friendly. Denver is again a bottom-10 stadium for IDPs, but this week the Broncos travel to one of the most tackle-friendly crews in Tampa Bay. Again, Tampa Bay is solo-heavy, so we could see a nice boost for some of Denver’s playmakers. Also, both of these offenses have been fairly aggressive in the early going, so both teams could post high solo numbers.

Brandon Marshall (ILB, Den), Todd Davis (ILB, Den), T.J. Ward (SS, Den), Derek Wolfe (DE, Den), Kwon Alexander (ILB, TB), Lavonte David (OLB, TB), Chris Conte (SS, TB)

 

Dal @ SF – San Fran finally gets some home cooking after two weeks on the road. Their pace of play and friendly home stat crew should help boost their IDPs, but it’s likely more of a boost for the visiting Cowboys. The San Francisco crew passes out significantly more solo tackles than the ‘Boys are used to at home. 

NaVorro Bowman (ILB, SF), Ahmad Brooks (OLB, SF), DeForest Buckner (DE, SF), Mike Purcell (DT, SF), Antoine Bethea (SS, SF), Eric Reid (FS, SF), Sean Lee (OLB, Dal), Barry Church (SS, Dal), Brandon Carr (CB, Dal), Morris Claiborne (CB, Dal)

 

Unfavorable Matchups

Sea @ NYJ – Two of the slowest teams face off in front of one of the stingiest stat crews. That headline pretty much tells you all you need to know. The Seahawks rank 26th in pace of play, while the Jets rank 29th. Add to that the Jets crew averages fewer than 90 points per game in Total Tackle Value (good for 30th in the league), and there are just too many obstacles standing in the way of these IDPs and tackle production.

Bobby Wagner (ILB, Sea) K.J. Wright (OLB, Sea), Michael Bennett (DE, Sea), Kam Chancellor (SS, Sea), Leonard Williams (DT/DE, NYJ), Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, NYJ), Sheldon Richardson, (DT/DE, NYJ), David Harris (ILB, NYJ), Calvin Pryor (SS, NYJ)