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Bottom Feeding
by John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com
Published, 8/21/08
I’ve been meaning to work up something about drafting at the bottom of Round One because it’s a very tough spot this year. I don’t know if I have the answers, but I’ve thought about it a lot, and I do have some ideas.
First of all, let’s get the obvious out of the way. If you’re drafting near the end of Round One and one of the following players is available, you’re golden:
Note, we have Barber and Portis with the same number of fantasy points; I’m making sure Barber gets a small bump-up because I do realize I like him more than Portis.
Considering the alternatives, these guys are rock solid in the first round, especially given the issues with some high-end receivers these days such as Andre Johnson (injuries), Reggie Wayne (long layoff for his QB), and Braylon Edwards (injury).
It’s ironic how I’ve been downplaying the RB position this year, but the assumption that needs to be brought up is that I am doing so – for the most part – assuming you get one with your top pick. Unless I’m sure I can mine some great values later in the draft, I really do want to take that RB in the first round. It’s the SECOND back spot that I feel doesn’t need to be overrated, and making sure you get 2-3 backs very early in drafts this year isn’t as important as it’ has typically been. You can definitely still get a solid #2 RB if you don’t take one until the 4th round, and you might even be able to get a nice #3 if you use your 2nd and 3rd picks on a position other than RB.
However, in studying up on picking late in the first round, I’ve come to the conclusion that RB-RB is probably the way to go. That used to be a slam-dunk, and actually preferred, but it’s not so clear this year. It’s really come to my attention lately (finally, I’m a little slow) that you’re at such a disadvantage this year picking near the end of Round One, and I think you can offset that by going RB-RB. Here are two reasons why:
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While it’s true the RB position is deeper this year, it’s also weaker at the top, so if you can manage to get two higher-end guys, that’s one way to offset your being behind the 8-ball by picking so late.
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In addition, I’m getting a little concerned with the guys listed above, Johnson, Wayne, and Edwards. They’re studs, but I’m not sure they are top-15 overall studs now, given their problems. I might be overreacting, but this is what I’m thinking.
If you buy into this, since you’re going to be investing heavily in the RB early, you need to catch up on WR, so I think it’s best to hold off a little on a QB. But that’s not really a bad thing. As for the TE, again, you’re at a disadvantage picking late in the 1st, so I view guys like Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Kellen Winslow as luxury picks. You probably can’t afford that, plus there are several nice values at this position – yes, of course, Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis stand out – so I think you’re better off targeting your TE later.
Basically, I’m thinking, if you’re picking near the end of Round One, going old school is the ticket. By “old school” I mean the following traditional principles:
-
Go RB-RB.
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Hold off on your QB.
-
Get a TE late.
If I could dig up some old strategy articles from 1998, I’m sure that’s what I was preaching. (Actually, I recall vividly advising everyone to take both Viking QBs, and both after the 7th round, and they [Brad Johnson and Randall Cunningham] combined for 42 TDs that year. But this stuff was easy then.)
Now, I’m not saying to be locked into this plan, of course. I’d still have to take Randy Moss or Terrell Owens in the top-15 at some point, but if at all possible, I’d like to go this route.
Okay, so who are the players to target when looking to go RB-RB when picking at the end of Round One? Here’s what I got:
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Steven Jackson – Finally signed, so I would feel somewhat fortunate if he slipped down near the bottom of the 1st. That’s unlikely, but that’s actually a good thing because I’d rather avoid him, and having him back up higher up in the first round pushed the guys below back down a spot.
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Marshawn Lynch – I have yet to draft in the 7-9 spot, so I have yet to draft him, which is a real shame. By the way, Marshawn is not speaking to the media since his “incident” and I am hounding him weekly to let me be his first interview on Sirius. He’s promised me another interview, but it’s probably not going to happen until the after the season starts.
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Marion Barber – A fantasy football gift if you can get him later/late in the 1st.
-
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Larry Johnson – This is the guy. This guy could be the key to it all. He has issues, but if he can stay healthy, based on what we’ve seen from him this summer, I’m now convinced he’s going to be very, very solid. By solid I mean average 75 rushing yards a game, with a 1 ½ TDs every two games. That’s 1,200 yards rushing and 12 TDs. Of all the guys drafted, say, 12-18th overall, he probably has the best chance to produce like a top-7 pick, based on his role as THE guy. I’m not exactly feeling great tabbing LJ as a savior, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and picking near the end of Round One classifies as “desperate times.”
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Maurice Drew – He’d have to be your #2, but while it’s disconcerting how he doesn’t really have a defined role, I just can’t see him failing. The guy’s so damn durable that, while he might be a little frustrating like he was at times last year, I’ll bet we see him in the top-10 at RB by season’s end. Others will get hurt, for sure. And if Fred Taylor gets hurt, forget it; you’ll have a fantasy beast.
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Ryan Grant – Another #2, but if I’m feeling the RB-RB deal, I’d be okay getting him as my #2. Now, I should mention Grant is still not practicing and at this point it looks like he’ll get in only one preseason game. He is shakier, no doubt. In a tough, competitive league, I might not take him this early, but I probably would if I felt I could definitely do well later in the draft. One thing’s for sure: I could not stomach taking Jamal Lewis this high, and he’s our next RB.
If you can’t get two of these backs, you probably either took Randy Moss, Tom Brady, or decided to roll with Terrell Owens. If so, you’re just going to have to take the best player available, and I do not think RBs like Lewis and Willis McGahee are worth higher picks in the second round. So if you took one of these guys, I’m not really in love with your position if you’re in a tough league with knowledgeable players; just keep that in mind.
Okay, so let’s
say you got (somewhat) lucky and were able to land two of these
backs. Let’s say, ideally, you land
Marion Barber
or
Marshawn Lynch
at #10 and #14 in a 12-team league. That’s a nice start. But another
one of the reasons I like going RB-RB (WHEN PICKING LATE IN THE 1ST)
is because it totally frees you up to go WR-WR in the 4th
and 5th. Now, you’re going to get shut out of the true
studs at the position, but I have some good news: You’re still going
to get two really nice players.
I’ve written in my Draft Plan article how I am enamored with the
“Fantastic Four,” four guys to target as beautiful #2 WRs. Well, in
your case, they will be #1 and #1A. When drafting near the top of
Round One, which I usually seem to do this year, I don’t seem to get
a crack at them. They are, of course,
Santonio Holmes,
Calvin Johnson,
Brandon Marshall,
and
Dwayne Bowe.
I don’t get a crack at them because, near the end of Round Two and the top of Round Three, it’s a little early for all of them. Yet, they’re usually all gone when it comes back to me in the 5th (maybe not Bowe). Maybe taking, say, Holmes near the end of the 3rd and Johnson at the top of the 4th is a little early, but I like it. It’s aggressive, playing to win, and from all indications this summer, it’s smart. And again, you need to be a little ballsy and ahead of the curve if you’re to overcome the challenge of picking late in the first.
Of course, there are a ton of things that could happen that lead you away from the Fab Four. Steve Smith could fall to you in the 3rd, or Wes Welker may be too attractive in a PPR league. Plaxico Burress may be too appealing to you, etc. And I must say that taking Bowe in the 4th is a bit of a reach (but again, I like the aggressive move). I don’t know your league and the knowledge level, so you’re going to have to figure that out. I’m assuming it’s a tough league comprised solely of people who know their stuff, as all of mine generally are. But Bowe could fall to you in the 5th or 6th still.
So let’s assume you got Barber and Johnson. And then, late in the 3rd, you get Holmes. And then Johnson early in the 4th (or vice versa). That would give you this roster through four rounds:
If I got this team, I would be pumped. Yes, pumped, even drafting near the end of Round One.
There you go. If you’re troubled by picking late in the first, this could be problem solved.
This is very doable, and, in fact, I was in a tough draft the other day and I checked the team that drafted #10 and he got Lynch, passed on LJ, passed on Holmes, and got Johnson. This squad was 100% doable for him. Here’s what he did:
Peyton Manning
Michael Turner
I like my proposed team above better.
So if you’re able to swing this, you may have offset the issues that come with drafting late in the first. Basically, what is happening is that you’re behind the position run for the #1 backs, but ahead of it for the #2 and behind in the run for the #1 WR, but also well within it or ahead of it for the #2 WR.
In the 5th, feel free to target a QB. If Ben Roethlisberger is there, snap his ass up. Or, a little later, shoot for Carson Palmer in the 6th or Derek Anderson in the 7th.
However, if you’re not quite as lucky as the fake team I started to form above, you may want to keep addressing RB/WR, and hold off even more on a QB and Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler, along with a solid backup like Brett Favre or Jake Delhomme.
I’m not sure what kind of players will be available in your draft, but in my tougher leagues, I think I’d be inclined to continue to load up on RBs and WRs and hold off even more on my QB and TE.
Let’s take a look at the team this owner in my recent draft could have formed if he stuck with this plan I’m outlining.
He already has this:
So then in the 5th, after that long wait, here are some of his options for his next to picks:
Kevin Smith – Not bad at all.
LenDale White – Also not bad.
Lee Evans – Like it, as a #3
Chris Johnson – Ballsy!
Please note, he just missed some nice options, such as (some of these may be available to you):
Selvin Young – I would do handstands.
Dwayne Bowe – As his #3!
Greg Jennings – Nice
Roddy White – Not bad
Let’s assume for a moment that the people in your draft aren’t quite as sharp as the experts in this draft I’m using, and let’s assume Selvin Young falls to you in the 5th.
Now you’re talking:
And let’s assume, and this is realistic, that Dwayne Bowe falls to you at the top of the 6th. Now here’s where we’re at:
And let’s also assume that the people in this league are a little scared off Derek Anderson, the guy I have been saying could be a big key to drafts this year if he falls to the 7th round due to his (apparent) downside.
That would give us:
Now this would be a sick team, and it all started from the bottom of the first round.
Even if we pull
back the
That gives him:
Or, we could go upside at RB with a Chris Johnson or a Jonathan Stewart (who is falling). That would be nice, too.
Or, we could finally grab a TE and take Chris Cooley, totally doable.
However, I really like Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis, so let’s hold off on the TE even more and swing for the fences with Stewart, who is falling these days. Johnson is a sexier pick, but he’s more of a luxury pick, and we can’t really afford one of them still when picking last. Now we have:
Obviously, we’re holding off on the QB. People are taking Jay Cutler before Matt Schaub, which I can see, but we have Schaub higher.
So let’s get greedy and hold off even more on our QB and take Sidney Rice, who could easily score 7-8 TDs this year.
Now we have:
We really can’t screw around anymore, so we’ll get our QB, Matt Schaub. Then we get Owen Daniels. And now we’re ready to get more depth at RB and we steal Maurice Morris.
We’ll stop here, but here’s the starting lineup:
QB: Matt Schaub
RB: Marion Barber
RB: Larry Johnson
WR: Santonio Holmes
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Dwayne Bowe
Flex: Selvin Young
TE: Owen Daniels
Bench: Jonathan Stewart, Sidney Rice
I like this team a lot. You may need planetary alignment to do this well, but it’s definitely doable. Maybe you get a Lee Evans instead of Bowe, or maybe you have to roll with LenDale White instead of Young, but this general blueprint should work for you.
To review, the keys to this draft were:
-
Getting the 2 RBs early
-
Getting the two nice 2nd or 3rd tier WRs and then getting lucky with a guy like Bowe as a tremendous #3
-
Holding off on the QB
-
Holding off on the TE
We were able to get good players and depth at RB and WR, and we did so because we held off on QB and TE. Notice, though, that we still got some good players at those positions.
Okay, for a goof, here’s how this thing could end:
-
We can’t pass on Maurice Morris in the 11th.
-
We grab Ted Ginn in the 12th; he’s the top receiver in
-
We see Tony Scheffler still there, and we make that no longer the case.
-
-
We snag Fred Jackson for upside and depth.
-
We grab Jon Kitna as our backup.
-
We take Rob Bironas, who was one of the best kickers last year.
Here’s the whole team:
QB: Matt Schaub, Jon Kitna
RB: Marion Barber, Larry Johnson, Selvin Young, Jonathan Stewart, Maurice Morris, Fred Jackson
WR: Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Sidney Rice, Ted Ginn
TE: Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler
PK: Rob Bironas
DT:
There are no studs here, but this squad is strong from top-to-bottom. I have depth, potential and upside, stability, and likely consistent production. This team just so happens to be loaded with youth and juice, and I like that.
Hopefully, this guide will help you handle that uneasy feeling of drafting late in the first round.
I know I feel better.