It’s a special playoff version of Stat Pack! I will go team-by-team and breakdown
three (five!) key statistics with a forward-looking view. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
- This year alone, Russell Wilson averaged 23.41 fantasy points per game at home (1.62 passing scores and 273 passing yards per game; 8.47 yards/attempt) versus 17.29 points per game on the road (1.0 scores and 254 yards per game; 7.28 yards/attempt).
- As a team, the Seahawks’ averaged 28.4 offensive points/game at home (0.88 win percentage) versus a lowly 15.9 points/game on the road (0.38 win percentage).
- Paul Richardson has out-snapped (98:84) and out-targeted (11:10) Jermaine Kearse since Tyler Lockett went down in Week 16.
- Russell Wilson’s red-zone (inside of the 20-yard line) target distribution this year is as follows: Jimmy Graham (18), Doug Baldwin (17), Kearse (16). No other receiver has more than five red-zone looks.
- Here’s Wilson’s target distribution inside of the 10-yard line: Kearse (11), Baldwin (8), Richardson (4), Graham (3).
- Over the past three full seasons, Julio Jones is third among all players in targets (495), second in receiving yards (4,873), and 29th in red-zone targets (41).
- Among all players with 40 red-zone targets in that span, Julio is 27th-of-36 in red-zone scoring rate (22.0%).
- The Falcons’ offense finished the 2016 regular season second in first down conversions, first in percentage of drives ending in a score, and second-from-last in turnover percentage.
- Matt Ryan’s adjusted yards/attempt in 2016 (10.09) ranks fourth-best all-time among passers with at least 250 attempts in a single-season.
- Devonta Freeman has actually averaged more PPR points/game with Tevin Coleman in the lineup (18.52 PPG – 13 games) than without him (15.13 PPG – 3 games).
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
- DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 10.75 targets per game over his last four games (he saw just nine looks per contest in Week 1-14). Hopkins averaged 12 targets/game in 2015.
- The 2016 Texans’ had a point differential of 3.5 points at home and -9.62 on the road.
- Brock Osweiler has been held under 200 passing yards in seven of his 13 full starts this year.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz has cleared 50 yards receiving once in his last 10 games played.
- Fiedorowicz played on 73% of team snaps in the Wild Card round after his snaps fell in three-straight regular season games leading up to Week 18 (78% > 67% > 53%).
- The Pats’ are 15.5-point home favorites against Houston, which is the second-largest point spread in the Divisional Round all-time.
- When New England is at home and favored, LeGarrette Blount averages 1.38 rushing touchdowns per game.
- Julian Edelman saw at least 38 percent of the Patriots’ team targets in three of his last four games. Mike Evans led all receivers in target rate in 2016 (30%).
- Edelman has scored at least 13.5 PPR points in every single game since Week 7.
- Before missing Week 17, Malcolm Mitchell was playing on 83% of Patriots’ snaps and saw at least 13% of team targets in three of four games (22% > 13% > 3% > 17%).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
- The Steelers have averaged 28.3 points per game at home versus 21.6 points/game on the road in 2016.
- Le’Veon Bell is really the only Pittsburgh player that is immune to their home/road splits. Bell averaged 26.6 PPR points/game at home and 26.3 points/game on the road in 2016.
- For what it’s worth, Antonio Brown averaged 21.3 points/game at home and 19.7 points/game on the road this season.
- Only Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Jacksonville ran fewer plays per game inside of the opponents’ 10-yard line than Pittsburgh (3.25) in 2016.
- Pittsburgh scored on 44.2% of their plays inside of the opponents’ 10-yard line, trailing only Dallas (44.9%) this year.
- After allowing 275.8 passing yards/game in Week 1-13, the Chiefs held opposing passers to just 202.5 yards/game over their last month of play (versus Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Trevor Siemian, and Philip Rivers).
- The Chiefs only allowed 15.8 offensive points per game at home this year. New England led the league in points allowed per game in 2016 (15.6).
- Travis Kelce’s two targets in Week 17 were an 18-game low.
- Spencer Ware has not eclipsed 70 yards rushing since Week 7.
- Warefinished as a RB1 (top-12) just four times during the regular season. For reference, Jamaal Charles finished as a RB1 in four straight games to open 2015 before getting injured in his fifth appearance.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
- These are Aaron Rodgers’ splits with and without Jordy Nelson over the past six years:
- Ty Montgomery has averaged 14.8 opportunities per game over the past five weeks, with 4.2 targets/game in that span.
- Dallas allowed the sixth-most receptions/game to enemy running backs in 2016 (5.60).
- Randall Cobb eclipsed 100 yards receiving for just the third time in his last 30 games in the Wild Card round.
- Jared Cook has seen at least eight targets in three of his past four games. Dallas finished the 2016 regular season ranked 30th in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA versus tight ends and they allowed the third-most yards/game (67.9) to the position.
- Dak Prescott ripped Green Bay for 247 yards and three passing scores in Week 6 versus Dallas. Dez Bryant did not play in that game.
- Excluding Week 17, Dez Bryant eclipsed 70 yards receiving in six of his last seven regular season games.
- Green Bay has allowed a total of 17 individual receivers to go over 70 yards receiving against them this year. Seven of those 17 performances have come in their last four games.
- Ezekiel Elliott ripped Green Bay for 174 total yards on 30 touches in Week 6. Elliott has averaged an absurd 132.6 total yards/game since then.
- Elliott averaged 21.7 PPR points/game at home versus 21.9 points/game on the road this year.