Wild-Card Round Stat-Pack
It’s a special playoff version of Stat Pack! I will go team-by-team and breakdown
three five! key statistics with a forward-looking view. The attempt here isn’t so much to provide atypical game recaps, but to provide rich context about the games that may not be obvious.
Instead of writing the column alphabetically by team, I changed the format a bit to look at each game. Here is the Wild Card Stat-Pack:
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
- Michael Crabtree finished as a WR2 or better (top-24) nine times in the 2016 fantasy regular season (Week 1-16).
- Amari Cooper had just five WR2 or better finishes in 2016.
- These are Latavius Murray’s last five snap-rates: 70%, 68%, 50%, 41%, and 30% (Week 17).
- Here are DeAndre Washington’s snap-rates in the same span: 0% (healthy scratch), 3%, 16%, 33%, and 40%.
- Connor Cook targeted ten different receivers on his 21 attempts against Denver, with Amari Cooper leading the team (5) and Michael Crabtree tied for second with Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford (3).
- In the fantasy regular season (Week 1-16), the Texans ran the sixth-most plays/game (66.5).
- In Week 1-16, Houston averaged 4.76 yards per offensive play. Only Los Angeles was worse (4.56 yards/play).
- What’s more, the Texans’ averaged just 0.022 touchdowns per offensive play (last in the league).
- When the Texans’ are at home and favored by Vegas (six game sample), Lamar Miller averages 17.53 PPR points/game on 109 total yards/game. Miller averaged just 11.12 PPR points and 78 total yards per contest in all other contests (eight game sample).
- Oakland allowed the fifth-most yards per carry and ninth-most fantasy points per touch to opposing running backs in the 2016 fantasy regular season.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
- While playing with an injured middle finger on his throwing hand, Matthew Stafford has averaged 42 pass attempts per game over his last three contests. Stafford averaged 36 attempts/game in Week 1-13.
- Stafford tossed a touchdown pass on 4.7% of his attempts in Week 1-13 and he has seen his touchdown rate dip to an abysmal 1.6% over his final three regular season games.
- These are Zach Zenner’s snap-rates in the four games Theo Riddick has missed (Week 14-17): 38%, 29%, 76%, and 97%.
- Zenner’s team share of running back opportunities (attempts plus targets) is as follows over the past month: 33% > 31% > 63% > 100%.
- Seattle allowed the second-fewest yards per carry and the fewest fantasy points per touch to enemy running backs in the regular season.
- In the fantasy regular season, Russell Wilson finished as the QB2, QB5, QB11, QB4, and QB2 in his last five home games.
- Wilson’s weekly finishes in his last five road games in the fantasy regular season (Week 17 excluded): QB23, QB25, QB4, QB30, and QB28.
- Jimmy Graham averaged 14.7 PPR points/game at home versus 9.5 points/game on the road this season.
- Just 26% of Thomas Rawls’ carries (109) went for five or more yards in 2016. Rawls gained five-plus yards on 41% of his 147 rush attempts in 2015.
- C.J. Prosise leads the team in percentage of carries to gain five or more yards (40%; 30 attempts) while Christine Michael is second (34%; 117 attempts) and Alex Collins is fourth (19%; 31 attempts).
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jarvis Landry has seen 26.4% of Miami’s targets with Matt Moore under center for three straight weeks (Kenny Stills: 23%; DeVante Parker: 21%).
- Pittsburgh has allowed at least one receiver to score 15.4 or more PPR points in six-straight games: Donte Moncrief (6/45/1), Odell Beckham Jr. (10/100), Sammy Watkins (4/54/1), Brandon LaFell (7/91), Steve Smith (7/79/1), and Terrelle Pryor (7/94).
- Jarvis Landry went for 7/91 (on nine targets) when Miami played Pittsburgh in Week 6.
- Even though Pittsburgh has the ninth-rated DVOA Run Defense per FootballOutsiders’ data, they have allowed 210/881/8 rushing (4.20 yards/carry) to enemy running backs since Jay Ajayi ripped them for 25/204/2 in Week 6.
- Miami finished the regular season 31st-of-32 in situation-neutral offensive pace.
- Ben Roethlisberger averaged 31.2 fantasy points per game at home versus 16.3 points/game on the road in the 2016 season.
- This year alone, Roethlisberger averaged 8.6 passing yards per attempt at home versus 7.01 YPA on the road. Matt Ryan leads the league in YPA (9.3) while Tom Brady is second (8.2). The league average YPA is 7.0.
- Le’Veon Bell failed to finish as a RB1 (top-12) in just one of 12 games this season (RB14 versus Baltimore).
- Bell averaged 157 yards from scrimmage per game in 12 games this year.
- At that pace, Bell would have gained 2,512 yards from scrimmage in a full-season (16 games), surpassing Chris Johnson (2,509 yards in 2009) for the most in a single-season all-time.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
- 2016 marked Eli Manning’s second-worst single-season in touchdown rate (4.3%) and adjusted yards/attempt (6.4) over the past eight years.
- Per PFF, Eli Manning finished 21st-of-27 in deep pass accuracy (attempts that travel 20 or more yards in the air) in 2016. Manning was 13th-of-22 in deep pass accuracy in 2015.
- Odell Beckham already has three seasons with 1,300 or more receiving yards in his first three years as a pro. The record is seven, held by Jerry Rice.
- In terms of PPR points per game, Beckham has finished as WR1, WR4, and WR4 in his first three seasons of his career.
- The only real comparison’s we have for such elite, early-career production are Randy Moss (WR1, WR2, WR1) and Jerry Rice (WR22, WR1, WR1) to start their first three years.
- Since the Packers were embarrassed in Tennessee in Week 10, Aaron Rodgers has an 18:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he is averaging 288 passing yards/game, and a god-like 9.87 adjusted yards/attempt (AY/A). Matt Ryan led the league in AY/A for the full season (10.1).
- Jordy Nelson caught at least six passes in seven of his last 8 games to close the regular season.
- In two games without Randall Cobb (ankle) to close the season, Geronimo Allison saw 18% and 15% of team targets going for 4/66 and 4/91/1 receiving.
- Per PFF, Allison has run over 70% of his routes from the slot in Week 16 and 17 with Cobb inactive.
- Jared Cook finished Green Bay’s final three games with 21 targets, seventh-most among tight ends in that span. The Giants’ yielded the fifth-most targets (8.70) and seventh-most yards (64.20) per game to opposing tight ends to close the fantasy regular season (Week 1-16).