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Breakout Receivers
By John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com
Published, June 27, 2008
Veteran fantasy players know all about the beloved “Third-Year Receiver” theory. I’ll admit it’s one of the better doctrines that fantasy geeks have come up with, and it certainly was working last year for Braylon Edwards and Roddy White (although not so much with Mike “Fridge-on-his-back” Williams).
On the other hand, I could contend that Edwards would have been great in 2006 if he had been healthy and had a real quarterback, and that White’s emergence was a classic case of addition by subtraction, the subtraction being Mike Vick, whose accuracy was just a little better than my Mom’s.
I can and will also contend that the second year can be just as mystical and magical for NFL receivers, and you’ll find no better example than the seasons logged in by pass-catchers such as Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Owen Daniels, and Tony Scheffler in 2007. Luckily, I started including second-year receivers in this article several years ago, and last year’s version of this article had extensive overviews of those five players.
So thanks to breakout seasons for those players, there’s not much left in terms of the third-year receivers who may be poised to break out, so the real meat and potatoes of this article can be found in the second-year section. But there are still a few interesting players who have yet to reach their potential and are entering the seemingly magical third season, so take note of them and don’t blow off the top section of this article.
Wide Receivers
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Marques Colston (NO, 252nd pick) – Colston was the 4th from last pick in the 2006 NFL draft, which is one of the more amazing items I’ve typed in quite some time. Colston – who was drafted just after such NFL luminaries as Kili Lefotu, Bennie Brazell, Devin Aromashodu, Justin Phinisee, Dee Webb, T.J. Rushing, Tim Massaquoi, and Spencer Toone – has to be considered one of the best values in the history of the NFL draft. Of course, he’s not a very good example of the third-year wideout theory, since he scored in his first NFL game, and since he put up a healthy 70/1,038/8 in his rookie season (despite missing three full games) and followed that up with an even beefier 98/1,202/11 in his sophomore campaign. What Colston has done now, however, is prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s the real deal, which is good to know. Entering his third season, his chemistry with QB Drew Brees and his familiarity of the offense can only be better, so it’s very safe to assume we’ll see much of the same from a healthy Colston in 2008.
Santonio Holmes (Pit, 25th pick) – He was a good example of a potential breakout receiver last year because he steadily improved in his rookie season. While his reception total went from only 49 to 52, and while his targets actually went down from 85 to 84, Holmes’ yardage shot up from 824 to 942, thanks to an increase of 1.3 yards per catch from 2006 to 2007. The Steelers took more shots deep down the field to Holmes, and he caught the rock an average of 13.1 yards downfield, farther than any WR in the league who caught more than 35 passes. His 5.0 average yards after the catch was better than any WR (minimum 50 catches) who caught the ball at least 11 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. He also caught 62% of the passes thrown to him, above the league average, and especially good for a receiver running deep patterns. He was only 35th in receptions per game with 4, but since he gained so much per catch, he was 14th in yards per game. He’s always clicked extremely well with QB Ben Roethlisberger, who often looks to him when he’s rolling out and in trouble. And you have to think we could see at least a slight improvement this year, his third full season in the league and with the QB, and in his second in OC Bruce Arian’s offense. Granted, he won’t ever catch a ton of passes here – the Steelers were actually 31st in pass attempts last year, and the addition of Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall means more mouths to feed – but even if he doesn’t improve, if he just stays healthy (he missed three games last year), he should eclipse last year’s numbers, meaning he’ll have a chance to be a top-15 fantasy wideout, with the upside to crack the top 10 if the big plays come with even more frequency. He is, however, at best a #2 fantasy wideout for now.
Greg Jennings (GB, 52nd pick) – Do you think the Giants would like to take back their Sinorice Moss pick, 44th overall in 2006, to select Jennings, who went 7 picks later? Jennings hit a major rookie wall in 2006, but he scaled that wall with ease in Year Two and emerged not only as Brett Favre’s top deep threat, but also surprisingly as a key red zone threat for Favre. The hope this time last year was that Jennings would be a little stronger and better prepared for the rigors of a 16-game season, and that certainly appeared to be the case in 2007. It started in 2007, but 2008 should see Jennings officially pass WR Donald Driver on the Packers’ wideout depth chart. Jennings has more speed, softer hands, and more run-after-catch upside than Driver, and his youth is a nice bonus. In addition, it should be safe to say Jennings will click better with QB Aaron Rodgers, since the pair did extensive work together back in ’06, and since Rodgers throws a pretty good deep ball. Of course, it will be very hard for Jennings to duplicate last year’s big production with Favre gone, but Jennings should at least be better prepared to handle such a hugely important transition in his third year in the system and in the league. It probably would have been much harder for him to make it last year as opposed to right now. So while I’m a little worried about him falling off, I’m pretty confident he will, at worst, still be solid.
Brandon Marshall (Den, 119th pick) – Ah, memories. Memories of wideouts such as Cory Rodgers, Brad Smith, Willie Reid, Brandon Williams, and Travis Wilson, among others, being drafted before the beast-like Marshall back in ‘06. At least Jeremy Bloom went 28 picks after Marshall. Marshall last year was able to land on his feet quickly after missing a good portion of training camp nursing an injury. He rapidly moved into the starting lineup, and he wound up leading the league, with 170 pass targets. He caught a relatively low percentage of his targets (60%) given his shorter routes, so that’s a clear indication that he might be even better in his third season, since that’s an area he can improve upon. And the good news is that he had an excellent 5.4 yards after the catch. He’s clicked famously well with fellow ’06 classmate QB Jay Cutler, and he came on particularly strong in the second half of the season, ranking 5th in PPG from Week Ten on, which suggests the best is yet to come. In short, the only thing holding Marshall back is Marshall himself, since his problems have been off the field (he’s had a few instances of poor judgment, as you likely know, including a new one this month). Given his various issues, Marshall may be facing a suspension, so stay tuned. Marshall wasn’t catching passes in the May and June OTAs, but he was ahead of schedule (in his recovery from a lacerated forearm), in football shape for this time of the year because he’s been running, and was expected to start handling the ball late this month. He’s already broken out as an NFL receiver, but the evidence suggests that he won’t regress in his key third season and, in fact, he could continue to ascend – assuming he puts an end to the idiotic behavior right now and doesn’t get slapped with a suspension.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Demetrius Williams (Bal, 111th pick) – You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better example of a true third-year breakout receiver than Williams. He’s shown definite flashes the last two years, but he’s also had some injury issues, and he has to improve his playing strength, learn how to shed tackles in the open field, and take hits over the middle. He was slowed a little this spring with a foot injury, a problem he had last year, but according to head coach Cam Cameron, he’s had a very good off-season, and he’s gained about 10 pounds, so he’s added some bulk. The Ravens want to inject some speed and quickness to their offense, and Williams is easily their best option to add some juice to this group. A legit deep threat, he has the speed, height, hands, athleticism, and route-running savvy to seriously hurt defenses. Early on in the OTAs, he was running with the ones, but it remains to be seen if he’ll starter over veteran Derrick Mason. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll have a very active role as their #3/slot receiver. His 2007 season was destroyed for various reasons, but note that he came on strong the end of 2006, going for 145 yards and 2 TDs in Weeks Fifteen and Sixteen, with both scores and most of those yards coming on big plays. And if the team rolls with Joe Flacco this year (or to an extent, Kyle Boller), someone needs to take advantage of the quarterback’s big arm. That would be Williams.
Chad Jackson (NE, 36th pick) – People forget that this was the second wideout drafted back in 2006 behind Holmes, and that he was selected so high because he’s a physical specimen who appears to bring a fair amount of “freakdom” to the table. Of course, injuries have been a huge problem for Jackson. He was slowed by a hamstring injury in training camp his rookie season and got off to a slow start, and then after showing some serious flashes of his immense potential, an ACL injury ended his season in the playoffs and pretty much wiped out any chance he had in 2007 (not that they needed him). Jackson is healthy now, however, so he’s in the mix for playing time. Ideally, he’s a physical complement to wideouts Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but right now veteran Jabar Gaffney, a solid player in his own right, is ahead of him on the depth chart and set as the #2. Jackson will battle Kelley Washington for a complementary role in the Patriot offense this season, and he appears to have the edge, since he’s flashed speed and great route-running skills in the minicamps. It’ll be hard for him to make a big splash here, but he’s very talented, and since he’s a sturdy receiver who can be physical over the middle and also beat defenders deep, so he’s someone to watch.
Derek Hagan (Mia, 82nd pick) – Hagan’s been able to play a fair amount in his first two years, but unfortunately, the main element of his game that has stood out has been his stone hands. He did, at least, better his 2006 numbers across the board, putting up 29/373/3 in his second season. His horrific situation at the QB position last year certainly didn’t help, and at best it will be marginally better in 2008. But what Hagan does have this year is a great opportunity, and a fan in new head coach Tony Sparano, who has been very happy with Hagan’s work ethic this off-season. Hagan has reportedly spent a lot of extra time working on the jugs machine. If he can manage to haul in most of the balls thrown his way, he could see plenty of them, what with Chris Chambers and Marty Booker gone. Most likely, his main competition for playing time is Ernest Wilford, who is more reliable but less dynamic. If he can beat Wilford out, he should be an active possession guy opposite Ted Ginn, who should have few problems securing a starting spot.
Have a chance:
Jeff Webb (KC, 190th pick) – Webb is an interesting prospect who has pretty good size (6’1”) and speed, so he’s someone the team will seriously consider for their #2 WR role here. Second year player Dwayne Bowe is a lock to start, so Webb probably has to beat out only Devard Darling, who joined the team this off-season after a few years in Baltimore. Darling may be the favorite for the job, but Webb has some game and an ability to make plays down the field. He has to work on being a more complete receiver and show he can excel in a possession role, but with Darling also lacking starting experience, Webb has a legit chance to walk away from training camp with starting job in hand.
Ben Obomanu (Sea, 249th pick) – Obomanu needs to be in the third-year wideout conversation because, of all the wideouts who caught passes for the team last year and are still with the club in 2008 and are healthy, he comes in 3rd on the team with 12/180/1 last year behind Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson. Right now, with Deion Branch unlikely to be available to open the season, the team is searching for a third wideout, and Obomanu, who is a good athlete with decent size and talent, is definitely in the mix. However, they have a stable of young players they like, including off-season standout Logan Payne and Courtney Taylor, so Obomanu is no lock to carve a large role here. But he has been with the team now for two full seasons, and entering his third, he should be ready to step up. Lord knows, they need someone to do that at this position.
Well, they are still third-year receivers
Sinorice Moss (NYG, 44th pick) – The 24-year-old Moss, a #2 pick, has had some major injury issues his first two seasons, playing in only 19 games in two years and logging in only 26 receptions for his career. The Giants elected to deactivate him in all four playoff games last year, and they added a rookie in Mario Manningham who should open the season ahead of Moss on the depth chart. In fact, with Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith and likely Manningham ahead of him, Moss is officially buried on the depth chart. Moss claims he’s going to emerge this year, but it’s impossible to expect that, unless there are a multitude of injuries on the roster. He at least has skills comparable to his brother Santana, but his hands and general awareness leave a lot to be desired. This could be his last chance in New York.
Travis Wilson (Cle, 78th pick) – Wilson has always looked good on paper. He’s an athletic receiver with pretty good size who catches the ball well and he could be a good run-after-the catch guy in the pros. The good news is that he’s made a push this off-season and, in fact, has been one of their better stories this spring. He’s claimed to be much more comfortable with the playbook, so maybe now he can take advantage of his good speed. However, with Donte Stallworth added as the #2, veteran Joe Jurevicius will be the #3, if healthy, meaning Wilson will be, at best the #4. In fact, with Josh Cribbs a lock to make the team because of his return skills, Wilson isn’t even guaranteed a job this summer. But he’s a good example of a talented player who might finally be ready to get the most out of his abilities in his third season.
Brad Smith (NYJ, 103rd pick) – He’s an outstanding athlete, and he’s been used in a variety of ways – at QB, RB, and WR. However, he’s yet to carve a solid niche at receiver. He did log in a solid 32/325/3 in 2007, but those numbers were more of a function of Laveranues Coles’ injury issues last year more than Smith making a move. The team hopes youngster Chansi Stuckey can help the offense in the slot, so Smith could once again be a backup who’ll need an injury to see the field. The good news is that veteran Justin McCareins is gone, and if there is an injury, the team has little choice but to start Smith, who should be better off now that he’s focused on the receiver position (he was a college QB).
Maurice Stovall (TB, 90th pick) – Stovall followed up his lame 2006 season (7 catches for 102 yards), with an equally bogus 2007 campaign with only 10 catches for a measly 86 yards. But let the record show he actually scored a touchdown last year, one fewer than that dynamo Anthony Becht. Stovall has a good combination of size and speed, and he’s got the potential to be a great red zone threat, thanks to his strength and jumping ability. Unfortunately, when you can’t pass Michael Clayton, one of the bigger disappointments at the position the last two years, on the depth chart, you’re not making much of a move. Stovall was seemingly poised to do just that this time last year, but his progress was negligible in 2007. As for this year, we’ve tried to find some morsels of positive information on Stovall this off-season – and we’ve come up empty. The best thing we can say about him is his team this year has the worst receiving corps in the history of NFL football, so he at least has a chance to see the field.
Jason Avant (Phi, 109th pick) – When Donte Stallworth was let go to sign with another team last year, the thought was that Philly would possibly look to promote someone from within like Avant to the starting lineup. Unfortunately for the second year player, they opted for Kevin Curtis, who is much more of a playmaker than Avant, who is more of a possession guy. He’s considered a very good route runner, and he has good hands. He was able to help the club last year as a slot guy and a player they get on the field on 3rd down (he had 23/267/2 in 2007). Avant will battle Hank Basket for that same role again this year, but they also have DeSean Jackson, who should see the field as a moveable chess piece. In short, while Avant will be getting his uniform dirty most weeks, there’s not much to get excited about.
Tight Ends
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Owen Daniels (Hou, 98th pick) – As a former QB, Daniels was a very good example of a player who should have been poised to take a jump up in his second season last year after getting in some experience – and he certainly did. Considered by some as more of a developmental prospect going into his rookie season, Daniels last year pretty much arrived as a tight end, catching 63 passes, good for 6th best at the position. He scored only 3 TDs, yet he still finished a strong 8th in overall scoring, thanks to his 768 yards. I spoke to Daniels late last year about his lack of scoring, and he said there were plays dialed up for him in the red zone, yet for some reason, they just weren’t coming. Imagine if they do in 2008? You’re then looking at a stud fantasy player, and Daniels isn’t allergic to the endzone, either, scoring 5 TDs in just his first five pro games in 2006. With another season in Gary Kubiak’s offense, and in his second with QB Matt Schaub, the sky could easily be the limit for the tough, athletic Daniels, making him a seriously strong breakout candidate.
Tony Scheffler (Den, 61st pick) – He was drafted one pick after Maurice Jones-Drew, and one pick before the one and only Tim Jennings, a DB who got a few starts for the Colts last year and registered a whopping 31 tackles. A two-year starter in college, Scheffler hasn’t had many problems adjusting to the pro game last season, but it’s been an up-and-down battle for Scheffler, as he discussed with me on Sirius NFL Radio last year. For example, back in his rookie season in 2006, he went from being a healthy inactive one week to starting the next, and that roller- coaster-ride trend continued to an extent in 2007, thanks to his foot injury. Scheffler, though, is clearly tied to his boy QB Jay Cutler (his emergence back in 2006 by no coincidence coincided with Cutler’s), and his role as the “move” TE and the speed guy alongside Daniel Graham (who is too good of a blocker not to be used mainly in that role) is secure. Now in his third season, head coach Mike Shanahan – who has been somewhat conservative in his use of Scheffler – should be ready to give Scheffler a significant number of snaps from the opening kickoff in Week One. That is, if he’s healthy. Although he’s expected to be ready for training camp, he’s missed some time with his aggravation of the broken foot, and as Scheffler told me last year he “wouldn’t wish a foot injury on his own worst enemy.” That’s a pretty serious concern, but there’s still a lot to like about this athletic youngster, especially now that he’s got two full years under his belt in this system.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Vernon Davis (SF, 6th pick) – This year is a huge year for Davis on a couple of levels. For one, those who studied him on film told us that Davis last year still didn’t possess a clue as to how to play the position in the NFL. Davis didn’t show he knew how to run routes, and at times he appeared to be just running around on the field. That’s not good, but in a way it’s a positive because you have to realize some upside if he can master the nuances of the position this year. Davis, of course, will be playing under Mike Martz, a coach who isn’t known for using the TE, and at times completely ignoring the position. But Martz has never had a talent like Davis, and he’s a great offensive coach who will have no choice but to make him a focal point of his offense. Davis has been used a bit differently by Martz this spring. According to Davis, his focus has been at finding different holes to sit in so they can get him the ball easier, and most encouraging, he’s running vertical a lot more, using his speed to get down the field. Although the team recently re-signed backup Delanie Walker and paid him surprising money, Davis should still be a key weapon for Martz, who is very happy with his work ethic this year and enamored with his speed. And when you consider that Davis put up a respectable 52/509/4 in a bad year in which he missed two games, plus how he was a top-10 guy his final 10 games of the season, then you have to feel okay about his chances now that he’s got another year in the league – and a real offensive coach. And best of all, his draft stock has plummeted 3-4 rounds compared to last year. Pay close attention to how things are going for him this summer; if things are going well, we may have a great value on our hands in Davis.
Marcedes Lewis (Jac, 28th pick) – A natural receiver and very good pass-catching TE, Lewis has excellent hands. Unfortunately, he’ll probably never be special because he’s on the slow side. He put up a solid 37/391/2 in 2007, so he hasn’t been a disappointment, plus he’s excelled in blocking. The good news is that the Jags want him to be more involved as a pass-catcher in 2008 because he has the athleticism, hands, and size to beat defenders down the seam, and he’s tough to bring down after the catch. So while he’s not going to run away from people, he’ll be more involved in his third season and second season in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s system.
Have a chance:
Leonard Pope (Ari, 72nd pick) – Pope is a big TE with good hands who has game-changing ability, but it wasn’t exactly a good sign that he was unable to win the starting job in camp in 2006 over Adam Bergen, who was an undrafted free agent. Pope has been the main TE for the past two years, at least. Pope was considered raw coming out of college, and while he’s used his impressive size (6’7”) to his advantage, scoring 5 TDs in 2007, his production has been mediocre. He finished 17th in scoring last year thanks to those scores, but 23/238 otherwise isn’t getting it done. He should be better off now in his third season, but backup Ben Patrick has garnered far more headlines this off-season, so unless Pope can quickly put his game together and command the ball as complete TE, he could be on the verge of losing his starting job.
Anthony Fasano (Mia, 53rd pick) – A 2nd round pick of the Cowboys in 2006, Fasano’s meager production that year (14/126/0) was followed up by an equally uninspiring 2007 campaign (14/143/1). His limited production was to be expected, since he was the second receiving option at the position behind the prolific Jason Witten. That’s not the case this year, however, since his new team starts a guy in David Martin who is a complete scrub compared to Witten. Since he’s a Bill Parcells guy, Fasano should get a chance to see significant snaps this year – if not challenge Martin for this starting job – so he’s a legit breakout candidate. You can’t expect much, but he’s an athletic and natural pass-catcher, so he has the skills to make a difference in the passing game.
Well, they are still third-year receivers
David Thomas (NE, 86th pick) – He’s missed most of last season with a broken foot, but the team did cut Kyle Brady loose, and they didn’t draft a TE, which can be viewed as an endorsement for Thomas, who they do really like. Unfortunately, they do currently have ancient veteran Marcus Pollard on the roster, so it remains to be seen if Thomas will see the field. But Thomas has shown a few flashes. He caught 11 passes in 2006, one for a score, and he had a nice game late in the season against Jacksonville (5/83), in which his score came on a diving, 22-yard reception. The best case scenario this year has him settling in as the #2 TE, but that comes with it significant blocking duties. But if he’s the #2 and Ben Watson is injured, he could help them in the passing game. And in his third year in the system and with QB Tom Brady, he should be more comfortable in what is usually a read-and-react passing scheme.
Joe Klopfenstein (Stl, 46th pick) – As a rookie in 2006, Klopfenstein played in all 16 games and caught 20 passes for 226 yards and a TD. But he was worked into the offense too slowly and didn’t show enough development, so the Rams felt the need to acquire a player who would be an immediate upgrade in Randy McMichael. That moved Klopfenstein to the 2nd string, and the results were grim: 2 receptions for 37 yards (but at least a TD). He has the tools to develop into a solid pass-catching TE, but he’ll need a serious injury to (the durable) McMichael to have any value whatsoever. And at this point, you have to wonder if he’ll ever make an impact catching the ball.
Second-Year Receivers
Wide Receivers
Already broken out but even more experience helps:
Dwayne Bowe (KC, 23rd overall) – Bowe got off to a slow start in his rookie season due to a holdout, but he quickly emerged as one of the best rookie skill players in 2007, which was quite an accomplishment due to the late start and the unfavorable situation in KC. Going into his rookie season, Bowe was considered a sizable and very physical receiver who was more of a possession guy than a playmaker. Yet he showed enough quickness and athleticism to gain separation down the field, and he was very good after the catch. Clicking well with quarterback Brodie Croyle (who locked on Bowe at times), Bowe was about the 30th best receiver in a typical scoring system. This year, look for physically imposing Bowe to do more damage on underneath routes and quick-hitters, as the coaching staff wants to put his stellar run-after-catch skills to better use in his sophomore campaign, and you have to like how he produced with Croyle at the helm. It’s safe to assume he’ll get better, and being in his second year should help, but his production is still tied to the shaky Croyle, and it would be nice if the team found a decent speed threat on the other side of the formation to take some pressure off him. Regardless, Bowe showed enough in his rookie season to lead us to believe he’ll be very good, so even if his poor situation prevents him from taking a step forward, he’s still a nice option as your #3 WR.
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Calvin Johnson (Det, 2nd overall) – Even though he’s such a big name, Johnson’s an excellent candidate to break out in his second season because this gifted player had only a so-so rookie season. Perhaps expectations were too high for Johnson, and we forgot that he was still just a rookie receiver who was banged up (back) for much of the season, but he did look a little lackadaisical at times in 2007. It’s also important to note that Johnson didn’t exactly dive beautifully head-first into Mike Martz’ complex offense last year. He’s been destroying Lion DBs in practice this off-season, so it would appear the back injury is behind him, and he should be much better off in his second year. He’s even commented how he’s very comfortable with new OC Jim Colletto’s offense because it’s much more basic than Martz’ scheme, which is good to know. So Johnson will be healthier, will know what to expect week-to-week after going through a whole season, and will be more comfortable in the offense. In addition, he won’t be sharing nearly as many passes with the team’s secondary receivers. He may not catch a ton of passes in what the team hopes will be a run-heavy offense, but he has the physical tools to dominate down the field and in the red zone, and the prediction here is that he does so with regularity in 2008.
Anthony Gonzalez (Ind, 32nd overall) – Here’s another tremendous example of a player who should be much better off after a first go-around with his NFL team. Gonzalez, who has great hands and runs excellent routes, was viewed as the perfect slot receiver for the Colts, and he ultimately was. But Gonzalez this past season saw plenty of time playing both the slot and outside, and that experience helped him immensely in adjusting to the Colt offense as a rookie. He said he now understands the “big picture” and feels more prepared to perform well at any position. It certainly took Reggie Wayne some time to truly embrace the Colt offense and build a sixth sense with Peyton Manning, and it took TE Dallas Clark several years to reach the high level he reached in 2007. So while Gonzalez may need another year to truly reach his potential with Manning and the Colts, you have to be encouraged by the progress he showed in just his first season, and you have to think he’ll be able to build on it. Gonzalez, who also impressively excelled against man and zone coverage, also showed a strong chemistry with Manning, who by the end of the season was throwing him the ball with timing and anticipation, which is a clear indication that Gonzalez may already be on the same page as his QB. If he is, and if Marvin Harrison’s tricky knee continues to be problematic, then Gonzalez will go down as a brilliant 7th or 8th round pick in 2008. Keep in mind his upside was on display down the stretch last year, when he was the 11th best wideout in fantasy points per game, with a stat line of 22/369/3 in his final five games.
Robert Meachem (NO, 27th overall) – Meachem was such a disappointment in his rookie 2007 season that any positive news – anything at all – needs to be viewed as a big plus. The good news is that he’s completely healthy now, has practiced hard in the OTAs, and has looked good, so the vibes are much better this year compared to last. The feeling is that he’s now ready to compete for the #3 role, but considering his immense talent and his experience in the league (even though he didn’t dress for a single game), he certainly has a chance to, at some point, move into the #2 spot, over journeyman veteran David Patten. After all, the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2006 for a reason: He’s a nice combination of size, speed, and explosiveness. Meachem is very smooth and fluid. He can run well, with good game speed, yet he’s also pretty strong and physical for a speed guy. The Saints, when they drafted him, loved his size and athleticism, explosiveness, and his run-after- the-catch ability. If he can get on the field, he’ll bring another dimension to their passing game, and he will definitely help them. Head coach Sean Payton is an excellent schemer and play-caller and will get the most out of Meachem’s abilities – and the quarterback is very good. If Meachem continues to play and practice well, he should pass Devery “Hands of Stone” Henderson and carve a significant niche in this offense. Keep in mind that, despite the healthy numbers in the passing game, the Saint offense struggled last year, and one of the missing factors was clearly a sizable and speedy wideout, which is exactly what Meachem is. He’s one of the more interesting players to watch at this position this summer.
Ted Ginn Jr. (Mia, 9th overall) – Ginn’s another great example of a receiver who should be poised to take a large step forward this season with a year in the league under his belt. Based purely on his talent, Ginn’s a very dangerous player, and he has the ability to develop into a serious playmaker and someone defenses must defend and game-plan for each week. He was considered to be a little raw last year, and that certainly appeared to be the case in 2007. Ginn’s durability is in question, as he was slow to recover from a foot injury suffered in college. Most importantly, Ginn showed last year that he needs to work on the mental aspects of his game. Too often he struggled with his focus, got frustrated, and lost control of his fundamentals. But this is a special talent whose quickness and movement is similar to Marvin Harrison’s, and he has the potential to change games himself. He also has a good opportunity on the receiver-poor Dolphins. It’s almost a lock that he will start alongside either Ernest Wilford or Derek Hagan, two possession receivers. You have to temper expectations because of what Ginn showed last year (not much) and, of course, based on their weak quarterback situation. But since he’s getting no love at all in fantasy drafts, he’s a worthy late pick for depth. If all he needed to excel was some experience, then we should see significant progress in his second season.
Sidney Rice (Min, 44th overall) – He entered the NFL a little thin, unproven, and raw, but Rice wrapped up his rookie season as a legit starting prospect after putting up 31/396/4 in a part-time role on a team that rarely threw the ball. He’s not that explosive, but he found a way to sneak it downfield to make some big plays, and he’s a very good red zone threat at 6’4” with great leaping ability. Last year was his first season in a West Coast offense, and Rice last year told me on Sirius NFL Radio that he developed a strong chemistry with quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. And when I asked him about how some compare his game to Randy Moss’, he told me that he’s still learning things, but hopes to do some of the things Moss has done. He’s set this year as the #2 alongside Bernard Berrian. Rice doesn’t have a ton of upside on this team, but he’s clearly an ascending player who appears to have a bright future.
Laurent Robinson (Atl, 75th overall) – Robinson has decent size, but he’s not exactly a physical receiver. What he is, though, is a productive, big-play receiver who quickly releases off the line, and immediately gets to top speed while making receptions in stride. He played behind Roddy White for most of 2007, but he definitely made an impact, putting up 37/437/1. This year, he’s poised to open the season as the #2 alongside White, which would push veteran Michael Jenkins to a backup spot. Robinson’s speed and athleticism could really help the Falcon offense become more dynamic after a woeful 2007 season, and given the quick progress he made in his first season, he should be able to take another move onward and upward in 2008, his second season.
Jacoby Jones (Hou, 73rd overall) – Jones is a terrific athlete, but he was raw entering his rookie season, and his inexperience prevented him from making a big splash, despite the fact that super-stud Andre Johnson missed about half the season. Jones is a charismatic, high character guy who seems to exude a special quality, and he definitely has the physical skills to develop into an elite receiver. But he came from tiny Lane College, and he’s thin, so he needs to bulk up, and he needs to show he can consistently beat press coverage and the physical corners in the NFL. I spoke with Jones late last season, and he felt that playing in the West Coast offense was different for him, and he said he finally caught up to it by training camp, but that was probably a little too late to make a big impact last year. But Jones told me late last season that he felt as if he turned the corner in the system, and that he’s now hungrier than ever to get on the field. He vowed to be mentally and physically ready to play, and it appears he is. With Johnson back on the sidelines for their OTAs due to his off-season knee procedure, Jones had a chance to get additional reps and work with the first-team offense, which should speed up his growth and build his confidence. In fact, QB Matt Schaub believes Jones is poised for a breakout year in 2008, talking about how Jones has made a huge step, how he’s more mature, and how he’s really on top of his stuff, and he’s catching the ball this off-season. Right now, he’s likely still only the 3rd or 4th receiver, with veteran Andre Davis likely Johnson’s backup. But if Jones sees the field and starts lighting it up by making big plays as he did in the preseason last year, he could conceivably push #3 Kevin Walter to the slot. Most likely, he’s 1-2 years away from busting out, but he definitely fits the profile of a young receiver who breaks out after gaining some experience.
Have a chance:
James Jones (GB, 78th overall) – A big and strong receiver, Jones turned himself into a strong NFL prospect with a big preseason last year. He’s got good hands, but while he can make a big play here and there, he has marginal playing speed. And while he started off very strong, he tailed off big-time down the stretch. Head coach Mike McCarthy thinks he hit the dreaded rookie wall, which suggests he needs to condition himself better for his sophomore campaign, much like Greg Jennings did the year before. A year ago, the Packers hoped he could be the eventual replacement for Donald Driver, but the drafting of Jordy Nelson throws a serious monkey wrench into that plan. Unless Jones steps up and holds onto the ball better (he had some fumbles last year) and appears better-equipped to handle the rigors of a full season, Nelson, a better prospect, could dethrone him as the #3 wideout as soon as this season. Still, there’s definitely a future in the NFL for Jones, who’s not afraid to go over the middle and catch the ball on those crossing routes so often featured in this offense. He just has to show the improvement that is expected of second-year receivers.
Jason Hill (SF, 76th overall) – Hill is someone to watch because he’s a decent bet to be the 49ers’ #4 wideout this year. And in case you forgot, Lion wideout Shaun McDonald caught an amazing 79 passes in Mike Martz’ offense from the #4 spot last year. Hill’s a burner with good speed, and he looked sharp in practice late in 2007 after injuries were a problem for him early in the year. His main competition for this coveted #4 spot is the ever underachieving Ashley Lelie, who doesn’t appear to be an ideal fit for Martz’ demanding scheme. If Hill progresses in training camp and improves his route-running, he could carve a sizeable niche in the 49ers’ underachieving wideout corps.
Steve Smith (NYG, 51st overall) – He’s smart, reliable, consistent, and a natural receiver, and he really had a great showing in the team’s 2007 training camp, and in the playoffs. But the question still remains: Is he a starter on the outside or a slot guy? His lack of size and limited speed seemingly restrict him to the role of a #3/slot receiver, but he’s a good receiver in the intermediate passing game, and he’s shown an uncanny ability to get open consistently, plus his work ethic drew rave reviews last year. He caught only 8 passes for 63 yards in six regular season games, but he was a factor in the playoffs, catching 14 passes for 152 yards in his four post-season games. He was playing in the slot as the #3 for the playoffs, and that’s what he role will likely be in 2008, but based on his impressive showing in practice since joining the team last spring and the post-season play, it should be safe to say we’ll see more this year. But unless veteran Amani Toomer gets hurt, Smith won’t see a featured role, plus he has to contend with Mario Manningham, who is a good fit for their offense and could be a little more dynamic on the outside than Smith. Still, it looks like Smith is can’t-miss in term of making an impact for the Giants this year; it’s just a question of how big of an impact he’ll make.
Chansi Stuckey (NYJ, 235th overall) – I had an opportunity to chat this spring with Terry Bradway, the former GM of the Jets and current player personnel guy. His son’s team was playing against my son’s in a Babe Ruth baseball game, and we didn’t catch much of the contest because we were too busy talking football. As we were talking, he was about to name a receiver they were excited about and I stopped him to see if I could guess, and it took only one to nail Stuckey. Now, granted, their corps of receivers is about as barren as it gets, but that’s a good reason to acknowledge his potential role on the Jets this year; they need a playmaker. He’s not a physical or particularly sturdy player, but he’s an ideal slot guy, and that’s where he’ll play this year. Stuckey, who missed his rookie year with a foot injury, has phenomenal hands and big-time run-after-catch potential, and he should figure heavily into the Jets’ plans in 2008. He’s not going to have much value himself barring a shocking development, but he’s a pretty good player who could add some dynamism to their offense. Lord knows, they need some juice.
Steve Breaston (Ari, 142nd overall) – He’s more quick than fast, but he was a dynamic return guy for the Cards last year, and now he’s pushing for more. Breaston has been making a strong, convincing push for the #3 WR role this off-season by not only bulking up, but by making a number of highlight-reel plays in workouts this spring. He could certainly emerge as a situational threat for the Cards in 2008, but he’ll have to beat out Early Doucet, who projects well as the slot receiver here. But even if he doesn’t get a legit chance to open the season as the #3, he’s only an injury away from having some value for the Cards. What he probably won’t have, however, is value for fantasy players.
Well, they are still second-year receivers
Craig Davis (SD, 30th overall) – The team’s #1 pick in 2007 had a beautiful opportunity last year in San Diego, and he actually opened the season up as a starter opposite Vincent Jackson. Davis is a pretty good player with solid speed and playmaking ability, but he never went over 39 yards in a game last year, and his 20/188/1 left a lot to be desired. Of course, he was just a rookie, and, of course, the team traded for Chris Chambers, two viable excuses. Unfortunately, the latter is a major prohibitive factor, since Chambers and Jackson are the unquestioned starters. The good news is that the team is pleased with how Davis has come along this off-season, so he should see substantial time in 2008 as a complementary receiver behind the starters.
Mike Walker (Jac, 79th overall) – A reliable possession receiver with consistent hands, Walker opened a lot of eyes last year in the Jaguar OTAs due to those great hands and also due to some polished route-running. He also did very well in training camp, but unfortunately he never got a chance in 2007 as a knee injury knocked him out for the season. Walker plays bigger than his listed size (6’1”) and can break tackles and pick up yardage after the catch. It’s actually not a stretch to say Walker is one of the team’s 1-2 most talented receivers, and he made some sensational catches in spring workouts. He’s poised to compete for the #4 WR spot in training camp, but given the additions of Jerry Porter and also Troy Williamson, he’s a major long shot. But he will make this team.
Courtney Taylor (Sea, 197th overall) – He’s a savvy pass-catcher who has decent size and who moves well. He makes the most of his abilities, but he’s not going to wow anyone. He projects as a backup in the NFL, most likely, but he is very much in the mix to open the season as Seattle’s #3 WR.
Roy Hall (Ind, 169th overall) – Hall, who missed most of the 2007 season with a shoulder injury, could see an expanded role in 2008 as either a wideout or even a pass-catching tight end because the Colts didn’t re-sign TE Ben Utecht or WR Aaron Moorehead this off-season. Hall, at 6’3”, 240, has solid size, above-average quickness, and sticky hands, so he’s a guy to keep tabs on during training camp. They do like him, and he projects as their third receiver for years to come once Marvin Harrison retires.
Johnnie Lee Higgins (Oak, 99th overall) – Despite a lousy rookie season, Higgins figures to be in the mix for a fairly sizeable role in 2008. The Raiders have big plans for him, as they love his fleet-footedness and big-play potential. He’s still raw in terms of his route-running, but he has the natural ability and instincts to be a regular contributor in the deep passing game. He has a long way to go, but he should definitely be better off with a year in the league.
Dwayne Jarrett (Car, 45th overall) – Doing a terrific impersonation of his fellow USC alum Mike Williams, Jarrett’s rookie season was a bust, as he was active for just eight games and caught 6 balls for 73 yards. The biggest wave he made was being criticized for his work ethic by stud Steve Smith, who just so happens to be one of the hardest-working players in the league. Jarrett made headlines this off-season with a DUI arrest, too, as the fun continued with his pro career. The Panthers at least seem to be somewhat encouraged by the progress he’s made this off-season, so he’ll at least retain his roster spot, barring another incident. But the difference between last year and this year is clear: Last year, they were relying on him, and they even cut Keyshawn Johnson. This year, they probably don’t expect much, after signing wideouts Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett. What the Panthers will probably realize eventually is that he’s just not that good.
Other 2007 Draftees:
Legedu Naanee
(SD, 172nd overall) – Like Davis, he’s progressed well
this year, so he should be their 4th receiver. He lacks
speed and quickness, but he’s a bigger receiver who can be a solid
possession guy. He did get on the field last year (8/69), which was
a little bit of a surprise.
Paul Williams (Ten, 80th overall) – He has the tools – size, physicality, and playmaking ability – to be an impact player, but he didn’t distinguish himself enough last year and will battle for a backup spot this summer.
Isaiah Stanback (Dal, 103rd overall) - The former collegiate QB is making the transition to WR. Although he didn't catch a pass last season, the coaching staff believes he'll be in the rotation this season.
Ryne Robinson (Car, 118th overall) – The team sees him as a special teams returner and as their #5 WR.
Chris Davis (Ten, 128th overall) - He's mainly a slot receiver, and he'll have some competition from rookie WR Lavelle Hawkins.
Aundrae Allison (Min, 146th overall) – He showed some flashes last year, but at best, he’s the 4th receiver this year. He will be used in the return game, however.
David Clowney (GB, 157th overall) - He was drafted by the Green Bay Packers but was cut last season. He's currently pushing for a roster spot with the New York Jets.
Yamon Figurs (Bal, 74th overall) – He's their KR/PR and won't likely see much time on offense.
Joel Filani (Ten, 188th overall) – The tall receiver was cut by the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings and is trying to win a roster spot with the Seattle Seahawks.
Jordan Kent (Sea, 210th overall) - The raw but talented second-year player probably will spend another season on the practice squad.
John Broussard (Jac, 229th overall) – Saw the field last year and showed some big-play potential, but he’s basically buried on the depth chart.
Tight Ends
Legit Breakout Candidates:
Greg Olsen (Chi, 31st overall) – From Weeks Three through Seventeen, Olsen was the 18th best fantasy TE in the league, which was impressive on a few levels. For one, he was just a rookie, and he admittedly was feeling his way around the offense and trying to contribute whenever he could, as he told me last year when I spoke to him. He was also a backup behind Desmond Clark, so Olsen certainly made the most of his opportunities, putting up 39/391/2. I told Clark last year that he looked like a wideout, and he seemed to be a little offended, but I meant that in the good way. In a good way for fantasy, at least. In other words, he’s first and foremost a receiver, which is good for fantasy. Clark signed a two-year contract extension that will keep him in a Bear uniform through 2010, so chances are that Clark’s presence will continue to limit Olsen’s explosiveness and upside. But Olsen should still be a lethal weapon in 2008. He’s athletic, big, and sure-handed enough to beat up on linebackers and safeties downfield, and he’s a really good red zone threat. He’s a dynamic threat, and he’ll be better off in his second year, so he makes an excellent upside pick as your backup.
Zach Miller (Oak, 38th overall) – He may not be a true stud, but Miller has all the tools to be a top receiving threat for the Raiders. He’s a great route-runner, a sound blocker, and a sure-handed receiver. He should emerge in 2008, his second season. Heck, a strong argument can be made that he’s already emerged. Miller, for one, was the only TE to even catch a pass in Oakland last year (44 receptions), which is amazing. In the final two games of the season, when QB JaMarcus Russell took most of the snaps, Miller was the #1 option in the passing game, with 16 targets leading to 11 receptions, 111 yards, and 1 TD. Don’t expect a lot of big plays, but if the team makes a concerted effort to get him the ball in the red zone, he could sneak into the top 10 at the position as soon as this year.
Have a chance:
Ben Patrick (Ari, 215th overall) – Patrick, who used to catch passes in college from none other than Joe Flacco at Delaware, has shown improved hands and enhanced speed in minicamps this spring, and there could be a training camp battle between Leonard Pope and Patrick this summer. After all, Pope is coming off a dislocated ankle and broken leg, and Patrick has not only turned some heads in spring workouts, but he also showed impressive quickness and reliable hands late last season after Pope was lost for the year. He’s someone to watch.
Martrez Milner (Atl, 133rd overall) – New Falcon OC Mike Mularkey isn’t known for using the TE, which explains why the team let veteran Alge Crumpler go. But someone has to catch passes from this position, and Milner, who was limited in 2007 (his rookie season) due to an ankle problem, should be the guy. The team added veteran Ben Hartsock, but he’s not a receiving threat. Milner is an excellent young receiver who needs only to improve his blocking and route-running skills before becoming a factor for the Falcons.
Kevin Boss (NYG, 153rd overall) – Obviously, the Giants didn’t miss starter Jeremy Shockey much late in 2007. In fact, they played better without him. His absence gave Boss the chance to showcase his impressive hands and nice route-running skills. Boss didn’t do much during the regular season, especially while Shockey was healthy, but he could become a key playmaker in 2008. The Giants could still trade Shockey, but even if they don’t, Boss should be a factor, since OC Kevin Gilbride has been implementing and experimenting with more two-TE formations this spring in workouts. If Shockey is gone or continues to be a headache, we’ll be talking about Boss all year.
Well, they are still second-year receivers
Brent Celek (Phi, 162nd overall) – Had the Eagles not franchised and brought back L.J. Smith, Celek would be in the “legit breakout” category, but he’ll be only the #2 this year, and they did also add Kris Wilson, who plays TE and a few other spots. Still, Celek, who has excellent hands and runs phenomenal routes, figures to have an expanded role this season in two-TE formations after showing a lot in his rookie year. He’ll be more comfortable in the offense in his second year, too. He’s still a nice flyer in a large keeper or dynasty league because unless Smith has a big year in 2008, he’ll likely be gone next off-season.
Dante Rosario (Car, 155th overall) – Rosario is faster and more athletic than starter Jeff King, and he could eat into his production this year. Rosario provides the Panthers with a deep seam threat, since he can get open downfield and make tough catches in traffic. The Panthers, however, did draft another TE who can run in Gary Barnidge, so Rosario needs planetary alignment if he’s to make a fantasy splash.