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2009 Sample Article

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Touchdown Vultures

Published, 8/15/09

Note: For the most part, we are not including the very obvious TDs studs (Jones-Drew, Fitzgerald, Moss, etc. The goal of this article is to point mostly less-than-obvious players who score or could score more TDs than most expect.

Running Backs

Definite Goal-Line Guys:

Michael Turner (Atl) – He’s the guy inside the five, obviously. They will likely take advantage of TE Tony Gonzalez in the red area, which could steal a few short ones from Turner. But if healthy, he’ll likely score 13-15 times.

Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – When the Giants get inside the 20-yard line, their offense becomes Jacobs, essentially. Jacobs is as big as any back in the NFL (264 pounds), and he received 42 carries inside the 20 in 13 games last season. But what makes him such an effective TD guy is his 19 carries inside the 10 – which he turned into 12 TDs. He didn’t get all that red zone love in 2007, but with Derrick Ward gone, he definitely will in 2009 – and the Giants should be in the money area plenty.

LenDale White (Ten) – LenDale’s value could be increased, in general, because he’s lost 30 pounds, which will help him take advantage of his light feet. But he’s still big (228 pounds), and the Titans run the ball like crazy. In 2008, White led the NFL with 21 carries inside the 10, and he tied for the NFL lead, with 12 TDs on those carries. That’s where he makes his money, and don’t forget it’s a contract year for White.

Marion Barber (Dal) – Barber had a lackluster season, and if you count Felix Jones’ somewhat brief showing before his season-ending injury, he was probably the least impressive of Dallas’ three-man attack. But Barber was still the Cowboys’ guy inside the red zone, with 39 touches, including 13 touches that produced seven TDs inside the 10. Don’t forget that Barber can catch the ball, too, and he converted five red-zone pass targets into a pair of TDs. When Dallas is on top of the goal, Marion the Barbarian is getting the ball, plain and simple. It is interesting to note that he’s lost 5 pounds this year – although he hasn’t lost his power.

Kevin Smith (Det) – Smith had a quietly solid rookie season, and the Lions trusted him with 16 carries inside the 10. Unfortunately, he didn’t convert a high percentage of his opportunities (just five of those 16), and despite being a solid pass catcher, he received only one target inside the RZ, likely because the Lions tend to defer to Calvin Johnson in those situations. But Smith was a good goal-line back in college, and when we told him we projected only 7 TDs for him last summer, he said his goal was 20. In a bad situation in 2008, he did get 8 rushing TDs, and he can improve in his second season. In fact, so far in camp, Smith is much stronger and is showing more power in his runs. It appears his work in the off-season is paying off, which is a very promising sign.

Larry Johnson (KC) – We’ve heard so many different things about the Chief offense over the last few months that we aren’t sure what to think. However, we do know this: Their defense is going to be bad, so experimenting with the spread offense might result in some really long days. In that respect, expect KC to run the ball quite a bit to try to keep the defense off of the field. LJ is the biggest back on the roster, and he had 17 GL touches last season. With a solid QB in Matt Cassel starting now, the Chiefs should move the ball a little better, and that should translate into more scoring chances for Johnson, who so far has been on his best behavior in camp and who is looking solid.

T.J. Duckett (Sea) – This guy’s name might as well be T.D. Duckett, because that’s about all he’s good for these days. Duckett averaged just 2.8 yards on 62 carries a season ago, but he was used only in short-yardage situations, and he was reliable inside the 10 with a 7/11 mark. One reason we think Duckett is definitely a valid late-round pick is the fact that he’s reunited with offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, who got the most out of him in Atlanta. Oh, and Julius “Run-into-the-pile” Jones is not a good goal-line back. It’s all Duckett for the short ones in Seattle this year.

Pierre Thomas (NO) – That power RB the Saints were being rumored to add may have been on their roster the whole time. Thomas believes he can be that guy after adding 10 pounds, specifically in his lower body, and he’s worked hard on increasing his lower body strength. There’s no Deuce McAllister to compete with for GL touches this year, and Thomas is one of the more skilled receivers among this group. He also seems to have a natural nose for the endzone. A possible buzz kill, however, looms in Edgerrin James, who the club is still considering as of early August.

Joseph Addai (Ind) – If he has one clear advantage over rookie Donald Brown, other than his experience, it’s his size. Brown’s a thin guy, so we would have to think Addai will have an advantage in terms of being the goal-line guy. Addai had only 8 goal-line carries last year, but he collected a healthy 35 from 2007-288, and he scored 19 rushing TDs over those two years, proving to be a solid goal-line back. If he’s healthy all year, he should score 8-9 TDs this year – or more. 

Jamal Lewis (Bal) – Lewis is going to have to carry the load in Cleveland, so he’s going to go in the top half of drafts anyway. The bad news is that he isn’t very good at scoring from in tight. Over the past two years, Lewis is just 10/38 in scores on rushes inside the 10. But unless rookie James Davis takes hold of this role, which would be a shocking development, Lewis is the only guy who seems likely to nail it down.

Cedric Benson (Cin) – He’s not the greatest goal-line back, and he got a pitiful 3 goal-line rushes in 2008. But the fact remains, he’s their starter, he’s a bigger back, and there’s no one else on the roster who should emerge as a goal-line vulture. With QB Carson Palmer back, the offense should move the ball more, giving Benson a legit chance to rush for 7-9 TDs or more.

Likely Goal-Line Guys:

Le’Ron McClain (Bal) – Raven offensive coordinator Cam Cameron praised McClain’s versatility and said the Ravens might even try him out at TE in some sets. This says that McClain will definitely be seeing the ball, no matter what. McClain is part of a three-headed monster in the backfield, but the notion that the Ravens will be shifting him back to FB means he should be on the field more often than not, and he definitely will be in short-yardage situations. Unless Willis McGahee miraculously has a huge year, McClain shouldn’t have a problem replicating his 18 touches inside the 10 this year. One thing’s for sure; they won’t be calling Ray Rice’s number inside the 5 very often.

Jonathan Stewart (Car) – Stewart is the bowling ball of the Panthers’ two-headed RB monster, at 235 pounds. He actually received fewer red-zone and goal-line touches than his counterpart DeAngelo Williams, so we’re taking a leap of faith calling him even a “likely goal-line guy.” But we tend to believe his role will increase in his second year, if at least when it comes to short-yardage situations, since he’s so much bigger than Williams. His promising stat: Seven of nine touches inside the 10 resulted in six points.

Sammy Morris (NE) – Morris had value yet last year as a Waiver Wire pickup because he scored 7 TDs in 10 goal-line chances and was productive, in general, as a runner. Unfortunately, his value doesn’t get much better than that because of the headache the Pats’ RBs give fantasy owners on a daily basis. However, Morris has shown a nose for the endzone in tight situations that Fred Taylor and Laurence Maroney have been known to falter in. They do still love Morris, so he will very much be in line for significant action in the red zone and particularly inside the 5.

Michael Bush (Oak) – It’s hard to say exactly what the Raiders are going to do offensively, but if they truly want to throw deep and run for power, Bush has to be part of that. The rub: Bush turned just one of 15 RZ rushes into a TD. Gross. But again, he’s their biggest back, and he’s also their best blocker. It seems elementary that he’ll be the guy over all others; it will be up to him to ensure the rock is fed to him all year near the stripe.

Tim Hightower (Ari) – As a rookie, Hightower tied for 5^th with 18 GL rushes and was second with 9 TDs. He tied for 8^th with nine pass targets inside the 20. Despite his relatively pedestrian stats, the Cardinals do seem to trust him in tight. His ultimate role depends on what Chris Wells can, or cannot, do. But since he’s a good blocker and is more proven in tight than Wells (and healthy) it appears Hightower will be well in the mix for those precious goal-line touches.

Chester Taylor (Min) – Let’s be frank: When you’re backing up Adrian Peterson, it’s hard to discuss any potential roles as anything but “possible.” But Peterson does have the fumbles on occasion, and that’s not a good trait in tight. Peterson tied for 29^th in goal-line opportunities (rushes plus pass targets) last year with nine (none of them passes). The Vikings ranked 4^th from last in plays run inside the five (24) and even though they were likely to run the ball on those plays (their ratio of runs to pass plays inside the five was the 6^th highest), they gave the ball to Taylor almost as often as to Peterson. Taylor is also a better receiver than AP, and he was targeted eight times inside the 20 last season.

To be Determined:

Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan (Den) – This could almost be a GLBBC in Denver. Buckhalter was used semi-frequently as a pass-catcher for the Eagles in the red zone, and Jordan’s a big dude used to pounding the ball near the endzone. Of course, we still don’t know what Knowshon Moreno can do in tight. Buckhalter has been solid this summer in short-yardage situations, and he does look like the goal-line back, but we’re not sure if they new coaching staff will view Jordan as a potential goal-line vulture.

Rashad Jennings (Jac) – Jennings is a big kid who fell to the 7^th round because of concerns about his timed speed, but he was an absolute steal for the Jags, who are already trying out a “proto-spread” offense, so they can get both of their RBs, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jennings, on the field at the same time. The reason, though, this is TBD is because MJD is a heck of a goal-line back himself.

 Wide Receivers

 Red-Zone Guys:

Note: All starting WRs should be “red zone” guys, but here are some guys we like more than their counterparts for their proficiency near the goal.

Terrell Owens (Buf) – One of the best red zone wideouts in the history of the sport joins a team that has been in desperate need of a WR with size. QB Trent Edwards actually does a solid job throwing the ball in the red zone, and he’s shown signs of clicking well with the TE in that area. Owens should take over that red zone love, and if healthy he’s a great bet to score 10 TDs or more.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea) – Housh catches a ton of passes, and from 2005-2007 he was one of the most-targeted RZ receivers in the entire sport. But without Carson Palmer in 2008, his numbers plummeted to a paltry 12 chances inside the 20 (of course, the Bengals weren’t inside the 20 very much at all). TJH has a knack for getting open, which could be put to good use in Seattle. He’s much more reliable than any receiver Matt Hasselbeck’s ever had in Seattle, so he should be very active in the red area. In fact, Hasselbeck has already spoken very highly of the red-zone savvy that TJH displayed during the OTAs.

Dwayne Bowe (KC) – Bowe was tied for 11^th with 19 RZ targets in 2008, and he finished tied for first with 10 GL targets. He converted only three of those 10 into TDs, but there is some good news. He also just missed hauling in a few of those missed scores. Coming into town is head coach Todd Haley, who developed Larry Fitzgerald into a practically automatic fade-route option. Since Bowe already has experience running it, there’s no reason to think Haley won’t utilize him. One thing’s for sure: The Chiefs will miss Tony Gonzalez in the red area, and Brad Cottam does not look like the answer.

Braylon Edwards (Cle) – During his breakout season in 2007, Edwards was one of the most deadly red-zone pass targets, and he led the NFL as a receiver because he was involved in 18% of his team’s red-zone plays. In Edwards’ bad 2008 campaign, he still contributed to 15% of the Browns’ red-zone plays, which should let you know exactly what his reputation is. Couple that with the fact that there’s no real reliable RB on this roster, how TE Kellen Winslow is gone, and how the other top wideouts here are rookies, and we should see more of the same. If healthy, 10 TDs should be a lock.

Marques Colston (NO) – Colston avoided a sophomore jinx in 2007, and he was even able to become better in the RZ and at the goal line, when he led the NFL with 11 targets and 6 TDs in tight. But he fell back into pure mediocrity inside the 20 in an injury-plagued 2008, including just three targets inside the 10. If Colston is healthy, he’s easily the Saints’ most viable red-zone WR, and he should post closer to the 11 GL targets he received in 2007, especially in this high-flying offense. On the downside, if TE Jeremy Shockey steps up as we (kind of) expect and stays healthy, that would chip into Colston’s goal-line looks. Of course, Shockey put up a big fat goose egg in the TD department in 2008, so Colston should be okay.

Greg Jennings (GB) – Jennings doesn’t exactly profile as the type of WR that we typically consider a GL TD threat. He’s only 5’11”, yet he’s a consistently solid TD producer, with 12 in 2007 and 9 in 2008. The reason, which Jennings told us last year, is because of the Packers’ scheme/utilization of him and the single coverage he usually receives on the back side. We have Jennings pegged as a legit #1 this year, and that’s one of the reasons why.

Roy Williams (Dal) – Who else does Dallas have at WR? Williams is the de facto #1 receiver here. He was absolutely atrocious in Big D last year after the Big Trade, but when you pay what the Cowboys paid to get Williams, they had better get him on the field. Here’s the issue, though: Even when Williams was dominating in Detroit a few seasons ago, he never received more than four GL targets or 14 RZ targets. Can he reinvent himself? The good news is that Williams is at his best making acrobatic catches, a trait that will definitely come in handy in the red zone for the ‘Boys this year.

Hines Ward (Pit) – Ward isn’t one of the most prolific goal-line receivers because he’s simply not built for the task in terms of catching fade patterns in the endzone. However, he’s consistently among the NFL leaders in RZ targets, with 43 over the last two seasons. And since the Steelers want to focus on getting Santonio Holmes downfield more, there’s no reason Ward’s shifty underneath routes inside the 20 should change at all. He always seems to get off the line cleanly in the red zone, and he always finds a way to shake his defenders to offer himself as an inviting target.

Laveranues Coles (Cin) – Veteran Chris Henry has been a nice red zone guy in the past, but Chad Johnson has never been a great TD guy, and Coles was actually tied for 6^th in the NFL last year with 23 red zone targets at the WR position. QB Carson Palmer liked throwing to TJH in the red area, and there’s a good chance he quickly starts looking for Coles, who was a very effective red zone guy last year for QB Brett Favre.

Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ) – It’s rather frightening that the 6’0” Cotchery has about the best size on the Jets for in tight, but there’s not much else there. Cotchery posted a career-high 17 RZTs in 2008, no doubt helped by the presence of Brett Favre, and he should still stay steady in that range, even though Favre is gone. The problem, of course, is that he’s never been a TD scorer, with only 13 over five seasons, despite 260 catches.

Kevin Walter (Hou) – While Andre Johnson was 2^nd in the NFL at WR with 28 red zone looks, Walter actually had more passes thrown to him inside the 10 (5, Johnson had 3). Walter was also 5^th in the NFL with 24 red zone targets. He not only has good size at 6’3”, he clearly benefits from the attention Johnson commands – and TE Owen Daniels is typically MIA when they are near the goal. Add it all up, and Walter, who was 8^th in the league with 8 TDs, and

Sidney Rice (Min) – Rice may still start with rookie Percy Harvin in the slot because Bobby Wade is about as unspectacular as WRs come, but Rice probably won’t have much value in this run-oriented offense other than catching potentially 5-6 TDs in the red zone. Fortunately, that’s what this article is about. Rice's sophomore season numbers were cut almost in half (15/141) while keeping a pace of 4 TDs, despite playing the same number of games. He’s been disappointing as a whole, but he can run a fade route well. That has value. Rice is definitely the real deal in the red zone.

Possible Red-Zone Guys:

Mike Walker (Jac) – Everything when it comes to Walker is based on potential. He’s athletic and has good size for the red zone at 6’2”, plus he has very good hands. But he has only 16 career catches, two career RZTs, and zero career TDs. But he’s going to start. And his chances start now.

Josh Morgan (SF) – Morgan isn’t extremely fast or quick, but he’s a big-bodied guy who has good body control, and he usually has good hands. He’s strong after the catch, and he’s very talented and competes well. In other words, he’s a very viable red-zone receiver. As of now, Michael Crabtree is still holding out, and Morgan is almost guaranteed to start. He should see an increase from his five RZTs last year, for sure.

Devin Thomas (Was) – Okay, seriously. We have no idea what Thomas can do. He has only 15 career catches and a grand total of zero RZTs or TDs. But the Redskins drafted him for his size, and right now it looks like he has the upper hand on Malcolm Kelly for a starting job. One thing is crystal clear: The Redskins desperately need a wideout with size in the red area, and Thomas is bigger and more physical than Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El.

Chaz Schilens (Oak) – Ideally, the Raiders would love to use Schilens as a guy to run intermediate routes, where his size (6’4”) and leaping ability are put to use. Fortunately for both parties, Schilens has, so far, been extremely impressive in camp and is probably the #1 favorite on the roster to grab one of the two starting WR positions.

Hakeem Nicks (NYG) – It wouldn’t be fair to assume Nicks can be the same kind of game-breaking playmaker as Plaxico Burress, but the thing about him is that he plays physically, almost like a tight end. And on a pretty weak WR corps, Nicks is going to be given the chance to contribute as a rookie. He’s physical and has great hands, which is more than we can say for any other receivers on the Giants this year. Unfortunately, his GL value is hurt by the big-time running game.

Bryant Johnson (Det) – Johnson had something of a career renaissance last year in San Francisco, where he reached career-highs in both RZTs (15) and GLTs (8). Of course, he comes now to Detroit, where Calvin Johnson eats up those kinds of touches. But if Calvin attracts all the attention, and he will, Bryant has experience running routes in tight.

Demetrius Williams (Bal) – He does have better size than vets Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, and he is a good leaper, so you might emerge as a red zone guy for QB Joe Flacco.

 Tight Ends

 Red Zone Guys:

Dallas Clark (Ind) – Clark led all TEs with 21 RZTs, and he converted all four of his GLTs into TDs. Because he catches everything thrown his way, can line up a lot of places, and knows the offense like the back of his hand, he’s targeted often. When you have a TE like Clark, who has a high comfort level with the best QB in the league, he will always put up good numbers.

John Carlson (Sea) – Carlson had an impressive rookie campaign with a bad team and a less-than-stable situation at QB in 2008. So it’s a good bet he can take the next step in 2009. He’s a complete TE who can block, and he plays every down, distance, and situation. He surprised some people with his receiving ability because he moves so fluidly. Because he plays every down, that increases the chances he’ll get opportunities in tight (14 RZTs in 2008). What might hurt him is the presence of a couple of red-zone beasts in their own right, RB T.J. Duckett and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. But Carlson has excelled in red zone drills this off-season, so he’s very much in the mix to get a lot of love inside the 20.

Greg Olsen (Chi) – It’s hard to talk about Olsen without acknowledging the effect QB Jay Cutler is going to have on him this season. With a gunslinger like Cutler at the helm, a guy like Olsen, a pass-catching TE who runs like a wideout and has excellent size and red-zone ability (5 TDs in 2008), can really take it to the next level. Despite being a “part-time” TE, Olsen was fifth with 17 RZTs in 2008, and third with five GLTs. As he’s expected to have an increased role this year, expect these numbers to go up. He’s an excellent leaper and very athletic, so look for him to get a ton of action in the red zone this year.

Visanthe Shiancoe (Min) – Shiancoe’s a weird one because he’s a TD beast (7 TDs in 2008), but almost based solely on his speed, athleticism, and YAC ability. He was targeted just seven times in the red zone, and only three of them went for TDs. He’d be tough to count on for 7 TDs again, but he does have a great ability to take it to the house.

Kevin Boss (NYG) – Boss was red-zone money in 2008, with 20 RZTs and six TDs, including 4/5 inside the 10. He was about as productive with or without Plaxico Burress in the lineup. He was a bit more of a TD threat with Burress occupying defenses, and he caught a few more passes when Burress was out. Bottom line: Boss averaged 4.9 points per game without Burress and 5.0 with him, so no difference.

Dustin Keller (NYJ) – Keller was used extensively in tight as a rookie, with 16 RZTs and six GLTs. There’s no reason to think those numbers won’t stay steady because the Jets don’t have a viable option other than Jerricho Cotchery to take pass targets inside the 20. If Keller can avoid a sophomore slump, he’s a good bet here.

Brent Celek (Phi) – You wanna know how bloody desperate the Eagles were for a viable red-zone threat last year? They targeted L.J. Smith 17 times within the 20. Holy crap. Celek had eight of his own, but expect that number to go up because Smith is gone, and Celek is more reliable anyway. What could have hurt Celek’s TD total was rookie and freak athlete Cornelius Ingram, but he’s done for the season already.

Anthony Fasano (Mia) – In developing a good chemistry with QB Chad Pennington, Fasano became a great red-zone target and perfect intermediate area receiver. He ranked 10th in TE points per game, primarily because of his 7 TDs, which tied for 3rd among TEs. But because he shared targets with David Martin (53 to Martin’s 45), he caught only 34 passes. The problem for fantasy owners is that this split workload limits the value of both players. The difference between the two was that Fasano was the primary scoring threat because he had 11 RZTs, including 4 inside the five (Martin had only 5 and 0). But a TE with Fasano’s opportunities would typically score only 4 TDs.  He’s very likely to “regress to the mean” and post a 35/450/4 stat line unless the Dolphins throw to him more.

Note: FantasyGuru.com Publisher John Hansen contributed to this report.

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