MLB Wagering, An Introduction

If you enjoy the GRIND of playing seasonal MLB, setting daily lineups, making waiver moves and constantly monitoring pitcher rotations you are ready to start betting on MLB. I have found that the work that I do for my seasonal teams helps me greatly with my betting. If you are already doing the work you might as well try your hand at betting!

I have bet MLB for over 20 years. It is my strongest sport…but my style is very unique. Below I provide you some things that I do to maximize my MLB knowledge and increase not only my enjoyment of the game but also a way that I have found additional ways to profit from baseball.

I will also argue with anyone that betting a slate of MLB games is WAY more FUN than NFL or any other sport. As you know as a seasonal fantasy player variance is BRUTAL in baseball but also your friend if you use it to your advantage!

Let’s dig in on how I do it.

I post my data and bets daily to MLB Betting subscribers. If you are interested in trying your hand SIGN UP HERE with code Rob20 to save 20% off your order.

MLB Betting MLBModel Style

• It is a very, very LONG season so there is NEVER a need to force any action. As with all betting, having fun is overrated. We bet when we have an edge and to make $. IF NO EDGE EXISTS GO FOR A WALK! Betting a game just because you are going to watch it is for rookies and long-term losers.

• I am a +EV MLB bettor. As such I ONLY bet numbers. I am not particularly concerned with streaks, trends etc. My goal is to beat early lines. I bet early in the day and possibly overnight. No action will EVER happen past 9:30am ET for me (EARLY BIRD GETS THE WORM). Early bird also gets the CLV (Closing Line Value), in betting all you have control over is getting the best number often referred to by professionals as “Getting the best of it”.

• I often bet on teams that my model thinks will LOSE. If I make odds of say +120 that means that team is EXPECTED to lose roughly 7/10 times the game is played. HOWEVER— If the oddsmakers set the line at +200 meaning the team is expected to lose 8/10 times we have EDGE. You have to have the stomach to do this. It works both ways with Favs and Dogs. As you know anything can, will and does happen once the game starts. Again in MLB variance is often brutal but also your friend if you take advantage of it.

• I sometimes bet all sides. Simply, I know what my mathematical edge is on a number. That edge is applied to my STAKE (fancy word for how much I will bet). This will range from .25 units to whatever size the bet warrants. You can do more work on this topic by Googling the Kelly Criterion.

• This is a very strict protocol.
  I will NEVER waiver.
  I will NEVER place a bet for FUN.
  I have done this for a LONG time.
  I don’t even watch many of my bets.
  My style BORING…but it works!

If you are interested in trying your hand SIGN UP HERE with code Rob20 to save 20% off your order.

Things you need to know if you are going to follow my model:

• Bet amount is ALWAYS the “Risk” amount. It is not the amount to win. I OFTEN will bet -250 favs for 1u which means the win amount is pretty small. Again see above. If there is an edge – we play it. I believe one big mistake novice bettors make is betting a “to win amount” this often causes over bets which leads to  big losses.

• Betting the run line is not a winning strategy instead of just betting a large favorite ML if an edge exists.

• DO NOT JUST PARLAY ALL MY BETS. I know people do this. But this is not a good long-term plan. The odds of the parlay NEVER match the actual probability of the outcome.

• If your stock portfolio made you 15 percent in a year you would be very happy. Reminder +15 units is a 15 percent gain on amount risked. Temper expectations and you will be much happier with results.

• I am not playing this game to be up in a week or month. I only care about the end result of the season. Which means missing days and picking and choosing is a losing strategy. Stay the course.

• We build a daily portfolio of plays at a mathematically established stake with a defined ROI. Some will win…some will lose. Remember if you can pick 55 percent winners you are a winning gambler. Easier said than done.

In closing there will be tons of ups and downs this season as always. The method will not change in an upturn or a drawdown. The goal is maximizing ROI. Frankly, If I could not make $ betting I would not bet. It really is not entertainment for me. I realize this is not the “I AM GOING TO WIN 200 UNITS” bullshit that comes from others (not guys that work here). We will aim to maximize value.

If you are interested in trying your hand SIGN UP HERE with code Rob20 to save 20% off your order.